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Nifty : 25384

Technical Outlook

Day that was..

The Nifty concluded choppy session on a flat to positive note. Nifty gained 27 points to settle the session at 25384. The market breadth remained positive backed by relatively outperformance of broader market. On the sectoral front, private banks, metal, consumer durables remained at forefront while FMCG took a breather

Technical Outlook:

* The lackluster movement resulted into doji like candle, indicating elevated volatility amid stock specific action. In the process, Nifty midcap clocked a fresh all time high

* The faster pace of retracement indicating continuation of uptrend. Going forward, we expect index to sustain its upward trajectory and gradually head towards 25800 while key support is placed at last week lows of 24750 levels. Meanwhile, volatility around Fed Meeting cannot be ruled out, we advise to deploy buy on dips approach

* Our view is anchored upon following key observations:

* Private banks showing signs of strength and with their significant weightage likely to steer Nifty higher

* Liquidity: FIIs have been net buyers in last week. With prospects of rate cuts in US, we expect FII money returning to EM and India stands to benefit significantly. This is incrementally positive with already robust domestic liquidity

* September seasonality favours buying dips: historically, September volatility with average of 3% decline has provided buying opportunity as 3M forward returns have been around 7% with 78% probability

* Brent: Prices continue their down trend after breakdown from one year consolidation. Expect prices to head towards $67 over coming months while upsides capped at $80

Nifty Bank : 52153

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

Nifty Bank maintained its winning streak on Monday amid selected buying . Index gained 215 points or 0 . 4 % for the day to close at 52153

Technical Outlook:

* The Index commenced the session on a positive note above 52 k mark and then managed to sustain above the same for rest of the session . In the process, price action formed a bull candle with higher high -low maintaining positive bias . Index has garnered a follow through strength after breakout from inverse H&S pattern las week and remains in upward trajectory .

*  In coming sessions, we expect inde x to head towards 52600 which is 80 % retracement of July -August decline (53357 - 49655 ) . Meanwhile, we have revised short term support levels to last Wednesday lows around 51000 that coincide with rising 50 -day ema

* Private Banks leading PSU peers, Most private banks have undergone base formation over past few weeks and expected to outperform PSU peers

* Price structure : A) With Thursdays up move index is forming a higher bottom as compared to August lows and poised for a breakout from bullish reversal pattern indicating further upsides B) Since beginning of 2024 , after each 15 % rally index has a tendency to correct around 8 - 9 % from highs resulting in higher bottom . In current context, index corrected 7 % from highs and retraced post election five week rally by 50 % over 10 weeks indicating slow retracement and robust price structure

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