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Nifty : 22406

Technical Outlook

Day that was… Equity benchmarks logged a fresh all time high of 22440 and witnessed a range bound activity. The Nifty settled the volatile session at 22405, up 27 points. However, broader market relatively underperformed as Nifty small cap underperformed. Sectorally, financials, Oil & Gas outperformed while IT, auto, FMCG extended breathe

Technical Outlook

• The index started the week on a positive note and gradually oscillated in 80 points range. As a result, daily price action formed a doji like candle, indicating breather amid stock specific action

• Going ahead, we expect index to reiterate our positive bias and expect Nifty to head towards 22700 in coming week’s. In the process, we expect large caps to relatively outperform the broader market as ratio of Nifty vs Nifty 500 has bottomed out around 1 level. Structurally, the index has retraced past five sessions decline in just a single session, highlighting faster retracement. Thus, we advise to use dips as incremental buying opportunity as immediate support is placed at 22000

• Empirically, in General election year, Nifty has a tendency to bottom out in Feb-March, followed decent rally towards General election outcome in each of seven instances over past three decades. Thereby we expect Nifty to maintain the same rhythm and head towards 23400 by June 2024. Hence, bouts of volatility ahead of general election should be capitalized as buying opportunity from medium term perspective. Our positive bias is further validated by following observations:

• A) Mirroring the index move Bank Nifty (which carries 33% in Nifty) has witnessed faster pace of retracement as it retraced six sessions decline in just a single session) highlighting robust price structure.

• B) Buoyancy in US, Europe, Japan equity markets validates strong global trend • C) The cool off in oil prices and Dollar index are likely to act as tailwind

• Structurally, formation of higher high-low on the weekly chart signifies elevated buying demand that makes us to revise support base at 22000 as it is confluence of: A. 80% retracement of current up move (21860-22440) is placed at 21976 B. 20 days EMA is placed at 22067

Nifty Bank: 47456

Technical Outlook

Day that was : The Nifty Bank extended gains on Monday to start the week on positive note . Private banks index closed 0 . 3 % higher Nifty Bank index to close at 47456 , up 158 points or 0 .34 %

Technical Outlook :

• The Index started the session on a muted note and then consolidated in a 47450 -47250 range for rest of the session before closing near days high . Price action formed a bull candle with higher high indicating continuation of positive bias on daily time frame

• We maintain our positive stance and revise target for Bank Nifty for March 2024 towards its life high of 48600 in March 2024 and recommend to use declines as buying opportunity

• Meanwhile we also revise short term support to last Fridays low at 46200 levels which is expected to hold in case of mild retracement in coming truncated week

• Structurally it is worth noting that each time Index has a tendency to challenge and surpass life highs after a base formation near rising 52 -week EMA . In current context index has already formed a strong base near 44600 levels . We expect index to maintain its rhythm and challenge life highs of 48636 in March 2024

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