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Nifty : 20096

Technical Outlook

• The index witnessed a gap up opening (19890-19956) and continued to inch northward as the day progressed underpinned by traction in banking space. Consequently, Nifty surpassed the psychological mark of 20000 and settled near days high. The daily price action resulted, into large bull candle, indicating acceleration of upward momentum.

• In line with our view, the recent consolidation breakout led to an acceleration of upward momentum that makes us believe Nifty would challenge the All Time High of 20222. However, in the upcoming sessions, volatility would remain high tracking monthly expiry session coupled with state elections verdict which will weigh on market sentiments. Hence, any temporary breather should be utilized as incremental buying opportunity wherein strong support is placed at 19600. Following are the key monitorable for the upcoming week:

• A) Constant improvement in the market breadth signifies strength in the broader market

• B) Declining brent prices, yields along with positive global setup and strong breadth internals support the bullish chart setup

• C) Post recent decline in bond yields and inflation, US equity majors have formed bullish reversal patterns on medium term charts. Positive global setup would also help domestic indices

• The sequence of higher lows signifies buying demand at elevated support base that makes us confident to revise support base upward at 19600 as it is 61.8% retracement of past two weeks rally (19414-19916) coincided with 50 days EMA placed at 19624 and past two week’s low of 19670

Nifty Bank: 44566

Technical Outlook

• The price action formed strong bull candle with a bullish gap (43880 -44003 ) resulting in a bullish head and shoulder breakout that indicate end of corrective phase on expected lines and acceleration of positive momentum going ahead .

• Going forward, we expect index to gain further ground and head towards next milestone of 45500 in the short term which is value of 80 % retracement of entire decline (46310 -42105 )

• Key short term support is now being revised upwards towards 43500 which is 80 % retracement of past four session rally that also coincides with last Thursdays bull candle low

• Structurally, key observation has been that, since covid lows, index held 52 -week ema (42700 ) on three occasions, followed by new high in each case in subsequent quarters . We expect same rhythm to be maintained . Meanwhile, Index has undergone healthy retracement of March to July rally while pricing in various negatives in the process . Index retraced 18 week rally by 50 % over 18 weeks indicating shallow nature of retracement that augurs well for structural upmove

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