IGI Logo

Nifty :23907

Technical Outlook

Day that was.. The equity benchmarks ended the session on a flat note, tracking mixed global cues. The Nifty settled almost unchanged, closing at 23,907. However, the broader markets continued to outperform; the Midcap index gained 0.40% to clock a fresh all-time high. Sectorally, Metals and Auto outshone the market, while BFSI, IT, and FMCG remained laggards

Technical Outlook:

• The index opened on a flat note and oscillated within ~120 points range, and filled the former gap-up zone (23835-23922) created on May 25, 2026. Consequently, the daily price action resulted into small bearish candle, highlighting a temporary pause for the second consecutive session.

• Index is likely to open gap-down on back of mixed global cues. Despite the minor pullback, the index witnessed supportive efforts emerging around its 4-month falling trendline breakout zone of 23,800, which is now turning as support as per change of polarity principal. This level coincides with the 20-day (EMA), indicating near-term support remains intact. Hence, we expect the Nifty to form higher base formation around this key zone and gradually head toward the 24,500 level in the coming weeks. This target aligns with the multiple swing highs recorded on April 21 and May 7, 2026

• Structurally, index is undergoing slower pace of retracement wherein over past five weeks it has retraced merely 50% of preceding 3 weeks 11% rally, highlighting healthy consolidation that sets a strong foundation for next leg of up move. Hence, investors should utilize this volatility to accumulate quality stocks backed by strong earnings growth.

• Underscoring the structural strength, technical support has now been revised upward to 23,400, which represents a crucial 80% retracement of the current up-move (23,262–24,038) and aligns with the recent swing low formed on 20th May 2026.

• Broad-market indices continue to validate the bullish sector rotation. Following a three-week consolidation phase, the Nifty Midcap index has successfully resumed its upward trajectory to register new historic highs. Concurrently, the Smallcap index has revived its upward trend after forming a higher base near its 52-week EMA, yet 8% way from All-time High. Hence, we expect catch up activity in the small cap space as the market breadth continues to improve. The reading of % of stocks above 50- and 200-days SMA has improved to 73% and 47% compared to 68% and 43% respectively.

Key Monitorable:

• Adding a structural tailwind to Indian equities, Brent crude oil has broken down below its one-month rising trendline support. This accelerating decline in global crude prices is highly beneficial for a major importing nation like India.

• The pair of USD/INR retreated from the extreme overbought reading on Monthly RSI of 84 (highest since 2002). Further, Gravestone Doji candle on the weekly chart signifies, potential trend exhaustion and an impending reversal in favor of the Rupee.

Intraday Rational:

• Trend – supportive efforts emerging around its 20-day EMA, indicating bias remains positive

• Levels - Buy around 50% retracement of current upmove

Nifty Bank : 54853

Technical Outlook

Day that was: Bank Nifty Index closed on negative note at 54853 on sensex expiry day down 0.4% on back of mixed global cues. Nifty PSU Bank relatively outperformed gaining 0.3%.

Technical Outlook:

• Index opened on a flat note and traded range bound and gave up the gains in last hour of trade. The daily price action resulted into second high wave candle with lower high higher low indicating breather after rally.

• Key point to highlight is that, after two days up move index took breather for 2 nd day near its 50-day EMA and traded inside Monday's bull candle range indicating consolidation. Going ahead, we expect index to form a higher base and gradually head towards 56500 being 80% retracement of recent decline

• The formation of higher peak and trough on the weekly chart signifies improvement in structure that makes us revise support at 53800 being 61.8% retracement of current rally (52780-55405)

• Nifty PSU Bank formed Inside bar indicating breather close near its 200-day EMA. We expect Index to hold 7800 levels and gradually head towards sustainability above 8100 mark will lead Index towards 8600 levels being 61.8% retracement of current decline(9095-7800)

Intraday Rational:

• Trend- After a recent sharp ~2000 points rally, index is basing in vicinity of 20-day EMA, indicating healthy consolidation at key support.

• Levels- Buy around 50% retracement of current upmove

Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number INZ000183631