The Dollar rupee pair opened on a strong note and held on to the gains to end the session near 83.50 handle - Axis Securities Ltd
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USD/INR
Market Commentary :
* The softer Jobs data increased the odds of a rate cut by the FED this year. Consequently pushing the US 10 year bond yields (currently at 4.49%) lower, from the recent high of 4.74%. The Dollar rupee pair opened on a strong note and held on to the gains to end the session near 83.50 handle, majorly driven by the Dollar demand from the OMCs and other importers.
* On the Daily chart, the short term moving averages (5,13 and 21) are aligned for an up move. On Monday we saw the USDINR pair bounce off the 13 day MA. Technically, the pair is expected to find resistance around 83.60, followed by 83.80. Crucial supports are placed near the 83.20 handle, followed by 83.00.
* The daily stochastic oscillator is suggesting an increasing bullish momentum in the pair, while the 20 period z-score of the difference between the 8 and the 21 day moving averages, remain in the neutral zone.
* Notable strikes set for expiration today are 83.34 and 83.77.
* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 8.1% probability that the pair will breach above 83.70 while there is a 5.4% chance that it will breach below 83.30
EUR/INR
Market Commentary:
* On Monday, the pair opened on a positive note, courtesy the softer Dollar and then inched closer to the 1.08 handle. Consequently pushing EURINR pair closer to the 90.00 level.
* The pair has gained strong momentum after it broke above the resistance zone of 89.60. The Short term (5, 13 and 21) period moving averages seem to be aligned for an up move. The immediate support for the pair is placed near the 89.60-89.50 the moving average cluster zone. The immediate resistance is placed near 90.20 handle, followed by 90.50.
* The daily stochastic oscillator is placed in the overbought regime and the 20 Day Z-score of the difference between the 8 and 21 day moving average, though in the neutral zone is inching closer to the overbought zone.
* Notable strikes set to expire today for EUR/USD lie at 1.0750, 1.0780, 1.0785 and 1.08.
* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 9.8% chance that the pair will breach above 90.50 today while there is a 8.8% probability that it will breach below 89.35.
GBP/INR
Market Commentary:
The general tilt towards the riskier assets, and the softening Dollar index helped the pound appreciate against the Dollar. GBP/USD on Monday inched closer to the 1.2650 zone, consequently pushing the GBPINR pair above the 105.00 handle.
The pair continues to remain above the short term (5,13,21) moving average, with the averages aligned for an up move. The immediate resistance are placed near 105.11 followed by 105.30. The immediate support is placed near the 104.60 handle, followed by 104.45 the moving average support cluster.
The daily stochastic indicator and the 20 period Z-score of the 8 and 21 day moving averages, are currently placed in the extremely overbought regime.
Notable strikes set to expire today for GBP/USD lie at 1.2500, 1.2620, 1.2635
Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 9.6% probability that the pair will breach above 105.55, while there is a 8.4% probability that it will breach below 104.50.
JPY/INR
Market Commentary:
* The Yen retraced most of Friday’s gains, majorly because the traders focused on the Yield gap outweighing the bullishness created by the intervention. The USDJPY pair bounced off 151.85 and moved close to the 154.00 handle. On Monday, JPYINR was muted and traded in the previous session range.
* The immediate support for the pair lies around 0.54-0.5380 handle 5,13,21 day moving average cluster, followed by 0.5350. The previous session high of 0.5494 is expected to act as a resistance
* The daily Stochastic oscillator shows increasing bullish momentum in the pair, while the 20 period Zscore of the difference of 8, and 21 period moving average is placed in the neutral territory.
* Notable strikes set to expire today are at 153.30, 153.50, 154.90, 155.00
* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 8.9% probability that the pair will breach above 0.5472 tomorrow while there is a 11.1% probability that it will breach below 0.5394.
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