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Market Commentary:

* Spot Gold ($) plunged -2.2%, suffering its largest single-day drop since March 9, 2022 (-2.7%) on the lack of haven demand as Iran downplayed Israel’s recent strikes. The plunge saw the metal pare gains made by a five-week winning run - the longest in 12 months - and dragged the front-month MCX futures lower; the contract settled at its lows in a sign of extreme weakness.

* Support for MCX futures lies near 70,888 with 70,557 and 69,812 offering the next layer of support. Resistance can be found at 71,956, 72,380 and further on between 73,042 and 73,407.

* The contract closed below support from the 13-day EMA while the daily stochastic oscillator remains bearish. The weekly oscillator regime has also flipped to negative but note that this has happened above the overbought threshold of 90.

* Despite yesterday’s slump, the distance between the 8-week and the 21-week EMAs is still in an outlier, overbought zone, based on 20-weeks of rolling data

Market Commentary:

* Spot Silver ($) tanked 3.5% in what was its largest such move in more than six months, attributed to profit-taking by traders after a strong advance. Looking at data since the pandemic lows, we find that whenever silver has fallen by at least this much in a single session, it has returned 0.9% over the next day with a 55% win-rate, but this must be looked at in the context of the current volatility.

* Support for the front-month futures lies at 80,200, with the next shelf of support in the 78,800 – 79,200 zone. Any recovery should see resistance near 82,700 and 83,430.

* The contract tested support at the 21-day EMA yesterday while the daily stochastic oscillator remains negative. On the weekly, the oscillator configuration is still positive but any close for the week below critical support at 80,728 has the potential to lead to a larger fall.

* The statistical difference between the 8-day and the 21-day EMAs has pulled back into a neutral zone, but on the weeklies the setup remains very overstretched statistically, even with today’s plunge.

Market Commentary:

* Crude futures ($) slipped 2.1% - their fourth day of declines in six and the biggest such drop since Oct.3, as fears eased over the middle east crisis. That pushed the front-month MCX futures contract below a near-term rising trendline; the daily candle ended with a hammer-like formation on a late recovery.

* Near-term support for the MCX futures rests between 6,686 and 6,739, below which the next downside barrier lies around 6,600. On the upside, resistance lies at 6,911 and yesterday’s doji high of 7,109.

* The 5-day EMA has dropped below the 13-day EMA, while the latter remains above the 21-day EMA. The daily stochastic oscillator is hovering near oversold, while the weekly regime has turned negative above overbought.

* The statistical difference between the 8-day and the 21-day EMAs has become the most oversold in eight months, while the weekly setup remains positive in neutral territory.

* Additionally, the outlook for increased US production is bearish for prices after last Friday's weekly report from Baker Hughes showed that active US oil rigs for the week ended April 19 rose by +5 rigs to a 7-month high of 511.

Market Commentary:

* Copper futures ($) were down 0.5% - their first decline in four – much lesser relative to the drawdown seen in most commodities, notably precious metals. The MCX contract was down a modest 0.1%, in the absence of major cues, with yesterday’s lows well protected; however, a piercing line candle formed on the daily chart.

* Near-term support for copper futures on the MCX falls between 835 and 839 and lower inside the 818 and 822 zone. Resistances may be seen at 848, 867 and 890.

* Prices continue to remain above the 5-day EMA, which is sloping up and is above the 13-day EMA. The daily stochastics oscillator is bullish with both the indicator lines above the overbought threshold, while the weekly configuration is very extended on the upside.

* The statistical distance between the 8-day and the 21-day EMAs has cooled off even as the rally has continued, but the weekly setup is in extreme upside territory.

* Traders will turn their attention to this week's Core PCE Price Index m/m and revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, potentially impacting base metals prices as the Fed's monetary policy could be influenced by the outcomes.

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