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Industry’s VLR base declined by 3.1mn in Aug-23, from the 3.6mn increase in Jul-23. This was led by industry VLR decreasing from 91.3% to 90.9%. VIL continued to lose VLR subscribers (-2.9mn), with Bharti also seeing a VLR subs loss, of 0.4mn, owing to lower VLR. Jio saw subs addition of 1.2mn in Aug-23. In terms of overall subscribers, Jio continued to report the highest addition for the 17th straight month (3.2mn in Aug-23), with Bharti lagging at 1.2mn adds. VIL reported flat subs addition QoQ, as loss rate moderated. The overall subscriber base increased by 2.2mn. Jio also had a lead in wireless broadband subscriber addition, with an increase of 3.2mn; Bharti followed, logging a 2.6mn increase MoM. VIL’s wireless broadband subscriber-count was up 1.3mn MoM. Jio seems to have gained from the launch of JioBharat phone. Jio’s wireline addition rate moderated, with addition of only 0.19mn subs (as against a 0.23mn addition in Jul-23), possibly due to monsoons. Even as Jio and Bharti continue with 5G rollouts, timing of the tariff hike remains the key trigger. VIL needs a sizable fund-raise to increase capex for restricting the loss of subs. We continue to favor Bharti Airtel and Jio among telcos.

Player-wise analysis

Bharti Airtel: Bharti added 1.2mn wireless subscribers in Aug-23. However, its VLR base declined by 0.4mn, with VLR proportion reducing to 99.8% vs. 100.2% in Jul-23. Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala, Mumbai and Rajasthan were the main contributors to the VLR increase, while Uttar Pradesh (E), West Bengal and Bihar were the major laggards. Bharti discontinued its Rs99 plan in Feb-23 in 19 remaining circles which may have impacted the company’s subscriber addition compared with Jio’s.

Reliance Jio: Jio added 3.2mn subscribers in Aug-23, down from the 3.9mn added in Jul-23. This is the 17th straight month of highest subscriber addition for Jio; its VLR base grew by only 1.2mn MoM, as its VLR proportion was down MoM at 93.6% in Aug23 from 94% in Jul-23. Kolkata and Madhya Pradesh were the main contributors to the VLR increase, while Maharashtra and West Bengal were the major laggards.

Vodafone Idea: Reported subscriber-count was flat MoM in Aug-23, as subscriber loss moderated. The VLR base declined by 2.9mn (vs. a 0.4mn dip in Jul-23), as the VLR proportion reduced to 87.3% in Aug-23 from 88.6% in Jul-23. This is the 17th consecutive month of a VLR subscriber-base decline. VIL lost VLR subscribers in 18 of the 22 circles MoM, in Aug-23. The dip in VLR base was led by UP (E) and West Bengal, whereas Tamil Nadu reported the highest increase in VLR base.

Urban-Rural mix: Jio’s performance on the rural front also improved, with addition of 1.6mn subscribers, while Bharti added 0.7mn rural subscribers. The highest urban mix skew was reported by Jio at 56%, followed by Bharti at 51.8% and VIL at 51.4%.

Broadband subscriber base: Jio maintains the lead

Jio was the leader in wireless broadband subscriber additions, with 3.2mn growth MoM, while Bharti added 2.6mn broadband subscribers. VIL’s wireless broadband subscribers were up by 1.3mn MoM vs. a 0.6mn MoM decline in Jul-23. This is the sixth successive month of Jio adding more wireless broadband subscribers than Bharti. Jio continued to consolidate its leadership position in the wireline broadband space, with 0.19mn additions (vs. 0.23mn adds in Jul-23), possibly due to monsoons. Bharti maintained its #2 position with 0.16mn additions (0.17mn adds in Jul-23).

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