IGI Logo

Subscriber loss significantly moderates for Vi in Feb’25

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) released the subscriber data for Feb’25. The key highlights are as follows:

* Wireless subs (excl. M2M): Subscriber declines moderate sharply for Vi

* Industry’s wireless subscribers (excl. M2M subs) increased by a modest ~1.1m in Feb’25, though still down ~29m since the tariff hike (Jun’24).

* Vi’s net subscriber declines moderated to a modest 0.2m in Feb’25 vs. ~1.8m monthly net decline on average since the tariff hike. This is a key positive. Including M2M subs, Vi lost ~1.4m subs in Jan-Feb’25and is trending better than our estimate of ~3.5m net declines in 4QFY25. However, we would wait for trend to sustain for a few more months before we can turn constructive on Vi.

* After a loss of ~1.3m wireless subs (excl. M2M) in Jan’25, Bharti added ~0.8m net wireless subs in Feb’25. However, for Jan-Feb’25, Bharti lost ~0.5m wireless subs and could miss our estimate of ~3.5m paying wireless net adds in 4QFY25.

* RJio’s subscriber trend improved with 1.2m wireless net adds (excl. M2M) in Feb’25. In Jan-Feb’25, RJio added 1.3m net wireless subs (2.5m including M2M), and is tracking ahead of our estimate of ~3m wireless net adds in 4QFY25.

* The trend of port-ins to BSNL in the initial few months of tariff hike continues to reverse, with BSNL’s net wireless subs declining for the fourth successive month with 0.6m net decline in Feb’25.

* Mobile Number Portability (MNP) requests remained elevated at 12.1m in Feb’25 (though slight moderation from ~14m in Jan’25).

* VLR (or peak active) subs: VLR base continues to rise faster than wireless subs

* VLR subscriber base increased ~3m MoM in Feb’25. We note that compared to ~29m wireless subs decline since Jun’24, VLR base inched up by ~7m.

* As opposed to net wireless subs decline in Jan-Feb’25 for Bharti, VLR subs improved by ~6.1m (vs. 1.4m net adds in 3QFY25).

* RJio’s VLR net additions remained muted with ~0.4m uptick in Feb’25. However, compared to ~14m net wireless subs decline since Jun’24, RJio’s VLR trends have been better with ~5m net adds, indicating churn was restricted to inactive subs.

* Vi continues to lose VLR subs, with ~0.5m net decline in Feb’25. However, VLR subs decline has moderated over the last three months (vs. ~2m monthly run-rate in 9MFY25).

* Fixed Wireless Access (FWA): Bharti and RJio continue to see good traction

* Industry’s FWA subs inched up by ~0.55m (up 10% MoM) in Feb’25 to reach 6.3m.

* RJio continues to lead in FWA rollouts, adding ~0.4m subs (up ~8% MoM) to reach ~5.2m FWA subs for ~84% market share.

* Bharti added 0.16m (up ~19% MoM) subs to reach 1m FWA subs in Feb’25.

* With the acceleration in FWA rollouts, we expect India’s home broadband market to also turn into an effective duopoly in the longer term.

* Data subs: Reclassifications and lack of data make analysis difficult

* Over the past few months, TRAI’s disclosures on Mobile Broadband (MBB) and Fixed Broadband (FBB) subs have been erratic due to the reclassification of FWA subs and the lack of updated data from Bharti and RJio since Nov’24.

* Vi lost ~0.5m MBB subs in Jan-Feb’25 and could miss our estimate of ~0.4m MBB net adds for 4QFY25. We note that despite rising M2M subs base (up ~1.3m since Apr’24), Vi’s MBB base has declined by ~0.6m, indicating declining quality of data subscribers on Vi’s network.

For More Research Reports : Click Here 

For More Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd Disclaimer
http://www.motilaloswal.com/MOSLdisclaimer/disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number is INH000000412