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TRAI’s 1QFY25 AGR data shows 0.9% QoQ and 7.5% YoY growth in Industry AGR (incl. NLD/ILD revenue). In absence of any major tariff hikes, this was primarily on account of telcos’ continued premiumisation efforts (MBB upgrades, prepaid-to-postpaid upgrades, data monetisation and international roaming), aided by decent wireless subscriber (subs) growth (of 5mn) in 1QFY25. Jio’s AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) market share strengthened to 41.7% in 1QFY25 (up 57bps QoQ and up 113bps YoY) on continued robust subs gains in both wireless and FTTH segments though it lost market share in 14 circles as its AGR (excl. NLD/ILD) grew only by 2.2% QoQ (vs. 5.8% QoQ growth for Bharti). Bharti’s AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) market share was flattish QoQ at 38.9% (though up 59bps YoY); as 5.8% QoQ rise in AGR (excl. NLD/ILD) was offset by 36% QoQ decline in NLD/ILD revenue. Conversely, 9.7% QoQ rise in NLD/ILD revenue helped VIL maintain its AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) market share at 15.3% QoQ (but still down 85bps YoY), compensating for 1.4% QoQ decline in its AGR (excl. NLD/ILD). However, BSNL’s AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) declined significantly by 11.5% QoQ to INR 25.5bn in 1QFY25, resulting in its AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) market share declining to 4% (down 57bps QoQ and down 86bps YoY)

* Industry 1QFY25 AGR rose 0.9% QoQ/7.5% YoY aided by telcos’ continued premiumisation efforts and decent subs growth: Telcos’ combined AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) rose 0.9% QoQ and 7.5% YoY to INR 636bn in 1QFY25. In absence of any major tariff hikes, this growth is primarily on account of telcos’ continued premiumisation efforts: a) MBB (mobile broad-band) upgrades; b) prepaid-to-postpaid upgrades; c) data monetisation; and d) international roaming. Further, industry AGR growth was aided by decent wireless subs growth (of 5mn) - Exhibit 1.

* Jio’s AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) market share up 57bps QoQ to 41.7% on continued robust subs gains: Jio’s 1QFY25 AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) rose 2.3% QoQ to INR 265bn on continued robust subs gains in both wireless and FTTH segments. Hence, its AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) market share further strenghthened to 41.7% in 1QFY25 (up 57bps QoQ and up 113bps YoY). Its AGR grew steadily QoQ in category A circles (+2.7%), category B circles (+2.0%) and category C circles (+2.2%) while it grew at slightly lower pace in Metros (+1.3%) - Exhibit 3. However, Jio still lost AGR market share QoQ in 14 out of 22 circles, primarily to Bharti as Jio’s AGR (excl. NLD/ILD) grew only by 2.2% QoQ (vs. 5.8% QoQ growth for Bharti) during the quarter probably due to muted APRU growth. Further, Jio lost its leadership position to Bharti in the key circle of Delhi; though, in turn, it took over the leadership spot from Bharti in J&K circle.

* Bharti’s AGR market share flattish QoQ at 38.9% as 5.8% QoQ rise in AGR (excl. NLD/ILD) was offset by 36% QoQ decline in NLD/ILD revenue: Bharti’s 1QFY25 AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) increased only by 0.8% QoQ to INR 247bn as 5.8% QoQ rise in AGR (excl. NLD/ILD) to INR 229bn was largely offset by 36% QoQ decline in ILD/NLD revenue to INR 19bn (probably on account of continued slowdown in global B2B business due to decline in demand for bandwidth, CPaas and other related services especially from global OTT players). Hence, its AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) market share remained strong at 38.9% in 1QFY25 (down 6bps QoQ but up 59bps YoY). It witnessed robust AGR growth QoQ across all category circles – Metros (+6.2%), category A circles (+4.1%), category B circles (+6.2%) and category C circles (+8.5%) - Exhibit 4. Further, it gained AGR market share in 18 out of 22 circles. Likewise, BHL’s 1QFY25 AGR rose by 1.7% QoQ to INR 17.2bn; it further consolidated its leadership position in North East circle with RMS of 55.2% (up 120bps QoQ and up 316bps YoY) in 1QFY25 - Exhibit 5.

* VIL’s AGR market share steady QoQ at 15.3% (but down 85bps YoY) as 1.4% QoQ decline in AGR (excl. NLD/ILD) was offset by 9.7% QoQ rise in NLD/ILD revenue; BSNL’s AGR market share down 57bps QoQ to 4%: VIL’s AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) rose 1.3% QoQ to INR 98bn in 1QFY25 aided by 9.7% QoQ rise in ILD/NLD revenue to INR 25bn. However, its AGR (excl. NLD/ILD) declined 1.4% QoQ to INR 72.7bn in 1QFY25 on account of continued decline in its overall subs base. Hence, its 1QFY25AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) market share was largely unchanged QoQ at 15.3% (up 5bps QoQ but down 85bps YoY). Its AGR declined in Metros (-10.7%) and category A circles (-2.8%) while it recovered in category B circles (+3.1%) and category C circles (+8.1%) - Exhibit 6. Further, it lost AGR market share in 17 circles. Separately, BSNL’s AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) declined by 11.5% QoQ to INR 25.5bn in 1QFY25, resulting in its AGR (incl. NLD/ILD) market share declining to 4% in 1QFY25 (down 57bps QoQ and down 86bps YoY) - Exhibit 7 

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