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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is likely to hold the support near $2315 level and rise back towards $2345 level amid weakness in dollar and decline in US treasury yields. Dollar and Yields are moving south as recent data showed inflation in US is stabilizing and not getting worsen and may even continue to ease faster than previously thought boosting hopes that US Fed would start cutting rates sooner this year. Financial markets initially expected the first rate cut to come in March, but it then got pushed to June and now to September. On top of it, US ISM Manufacturing PMI data is likely to show that activity in sector contracted for 2 nd consecutive month, supportive for gold

* MCX Gold Aug prices is likely to rise back towards 72,200 level (10-Day EMA) as long as it stays above 71,600 level. A break above 72,200 level prices may rise further towards 72,700 level.

* MCX Silver July is expected to slip further towards 90,100 level (20-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 92,600 level (10-Day EMA)

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade with the positive bias amid weakness in dollar and rise in risk appetite in the global markets. Data showed US inflation stabilizing in April, reinforcing expectations that US Fed would start cutting rates this year. On top of it, even though euro zone inflation rose more than expected in May, market expects European Central Bank to start lowering borrowing costs soon. Lower borrowing cost would be supportive for economic activity and increase demand for industrial metal. Additionally, on supply side, Chile registered its lowest month of copper production in more than a year

* MCX Copper is expected to rise back towards 885 level (20-Day EMA) as long as it stays above 865 level. A break above 885 level prices may rally further towards 892 level (10-Day EMA)

* Aluminum is expected to move south towards 238 level as long as it stays below 243 level.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to rise back towards $78.50 level amid weakness in dollar and optimistic global market sentiments. Further, OPEC+ agreed to extend most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025. OPEC+ decided to extend the cuts of 3.66 Mbpd by a year until the end of 2025 and prolong the voluntary output cuts of 2.2 Mbpd by three months until the end of September 2024. Members are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 Mbpd or about 5.7% of global demand. NYMEX Crude oil is likely to rise back towards $78.50 level (20-Day EMA) as long as it trades above $76.30 level

* MCX Crude oil June is likely to rise back towards 6600 levels (200-Day EMA) as long as it stays above 6350 level

* MCX Natural gas June is expected to rise towards 225 level as long as it stays above 215 level (10-Day EMA). A break above 225 level prices may rally further towards 232 levels

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