MCX Silver Sep is expected to rise towards Rs 113,500 level as long as it trades above Rs 111,200 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to dip back towards $3300 level on expectation that dollar will regain its strength and U.S treasury yields will rise following clarification from U.S President Donald trump that its highly unlikely to fire Fed Chair Powell before its term ends. Further, rise in price pressure and better than expected retail sales and job data cemented expectations that US Fed if less likely to cut interest rates twice this year. Improvement in economic activity will give Fed cover to delay cutting interest rates. Recent batch of economic data signals strength in consumer and labor markets. Meanwhile, demand for safe haven may increase on escalating geopolitical tension in Middle East and uncertainty over U.S trade policies
• Spot gold is likely to slip towards $3300 level as long as it stays below $3365 level. MCX Gold Aug is expected to slip back towards Rs 96,800 level as long as it stays below Rs 98,000 level
• MCX Silver Sep is expected to rise towards Rs 113,500 level as long as it trades above Rs 111,200 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with a negative bias on expectation of recovery in dollar and uncertainty about the U.S import tariffs. Investors will remain cautious ahead of 1 st August deadline when many trading partners will face higher trade levies and a list of the copper products to which the levy would apply. U.S President Donald Trump said he would send letters to more than 150 countries warning them their levies would be 10%-15%. Moreover, market fears that trade tariffs could slowdown economic growth and in turn dampen demand for industrial metal. Additionally, prices may slip further amid rise in inventories at LME registered warehouses. Adding downside pressure, data showed Chinese refined copper output in June rose 14% y/y to record high
• MCX Copper July is expected to slip towards Rs 878 level as long as it stays below Rs 888 level. A break below Rs 878 level prices may slide further towards Rs 874 level
• MCX Aluminum July is expected to rise back towards Rs 250 level as long as it stays above Rs 247 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to move north towards Rs 261 level as long as it stays above Rs 255 level.
Energy Outlook
• Crude oil is likely to rise further towards $67.50 level on rise in risk appetite in the global market following improved economic data from U.S. Further, prices may rally on supply concerns from Middle East as drones struck Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields for 4 th Day. As per media reports, oil output has been slashed more than half in semiautonomous Kurdistan region. Region normally produces oil about 280,000 bpd. Meanwhile, market fears that higher trade tariffs and higher borrowing cost could slowdown global economic growth and in turn dampen demand for oil. U.S President Donald Trump said he would send letters to more than 150 countries warning them their levies would be 10%-15%.
• MCX Crude oil Aug is likely to rise back towards Rs 5800 level as long as it stays above Rs 5550 level.
• MCX Natural gas July is expected to dip towards Rs 295 level as long as it stays below Rs 315 level.
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