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Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 0.65% at 159,547, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower bond yields after crude oil prices declined on optimism surrounding a potential easing of Middle East tensions. Reports that Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire strengthened hopes of a broader diplomatic breakthrough involving Washington and Tehran, improving risk sentiment across financial markets. Investors are now closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. employment report, which could provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. On the demand front, India's physically backed gold ETFs recorded their first monthly net outflow in a year during May, with investors booking profits following the sharp rally in prices. However, despite the recent outflow, cumulative ETF inflows remain robust in 2026. Swiss gold exports declined sharply in April due to weaker shipments to the UK and China, although exports to India and Hong Kong improved. Central bank demand continues to provide strong long-term support, with Goldman Sachs raising its estimate for official sector purchases and projecting sustained buying through 2026 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Physical demand remained subdued in major Asian markets. Indian dealers increased discounts as higher prices and import duties discouraged purchases, while premiums in China narrowed due to cautious buying interest. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported that India's investment demand surpassed jewellery consumption for the first time on record in the March quarter, highlighting strong investor preference for the metal. Globally, first-quarter gold demand rose 2% year-on-year, driven by strong investment and central bank purchases. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 0.86% to 8,311 contracts. Gold has immediate support at 158,690, with a break below this level potentially testing 157,840. On the upside, resistance is seen at 160,400, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 161,260.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 157840-161260.

*  Gold prices gained as oil prices ‌slipped on optimism over a potential end to the Iran conflict.

*  Lebanon ceasefire raises hopes of progress for Iran deal

*  India's physically backed gold exchange-traded funds recorded their first net monthly outflow in a year in May.

Silver

Silver prices settled higher by 0.70% at 264,796, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and easing inflation concerns as hopes increased for a diplomatic resolution to tensions in the Middle East. Optimism improved after Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire, raising expectations for broader de-escalation involving Iran. Additional support came after the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution aimed at limiting further military action against Iran, reducing safe-haven demand for the dollar and improving sentiment across commodity markets. Despite the positive market mood, Federal Reserve officials maintained a cautious stance on inflation. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan indicated that monetary policy may need to remain mildly restrictive or even become tighter to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also warned that disruptions to global energy supply chains could persist for months even if Middle East tensions ease, creating ongoing economic challenges. Fundamentally, the silver market remains supported by strong physical demand trends. India tightened restrictions on silver imports by placing grain, powder, bars, and most semi-manufactured forms under the restricted category, requiring import authorization. The move is intended to reduce import volumes and ease pressure on the rupee but could tighten domestic supplies and lift local premiums. Meanwhile, China’s silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tons in March, driven by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of tax policy changes. London vault silver holdings stood at 27,454 tonnes at the end of April, slightly lower than the previous month. Technically, silver is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 2.05% to 11,732 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 261,660, with a break below this level potentially testing 258,525. On the upside, resistance is placed at 267,865, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward 270,935.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 258525-270935.

* Silver gained as hopes for a Middle East resolution weakened the dollar and oil prices.

* Israel and Lebanon’s agreement to implement a ceasefire and end hostilities fueled optimism for a broader deal to de-escalate war.

* Fed policy 'a bit loose,' need it to be 'restrictive,' Logan says

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 4.31% to settle at 8,842, as easing geopolitical tensions reduced supply disruption concerns and triggered broad-based profit booking. Market sentiment improved after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon raised hopes for a wider diplomatic resolution involving Iran. Expectations of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route, weighed heavily on crude prices and reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had supported the market in recent weeks. Fundamentally, mixed supply and demand signals continued to influence the market. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged that Russia’s oil production has declined since the start of the year due to unplanned refinery maintenance. Novak also highlighted growing uncertainty regarding global oil demand after discussions with Saudi Arabia, reflecting concerns about the economic impact of recent geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million barrels previously, citing weaker consumption expectations, although it raised its outlook for 2027 demand growth. In the United States, crude inventories fell by 7.97 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations and marking the largest draw since February. Stocks at the Cushing delivery hub also declined, while net crude imports fell during the week. However, the bullish inventory data was offset by a sharp increase in gasoline and distillate inventories, signaling softer fuel demand. Additionally, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined for a tenth consecutive week, falling to its lowest level since January 2024. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 22.25% to 10,070 contracts while prices declined sharply. Crude oil has immediate support at 8,709, with a break below this level potentially testing 8,575. Resistance is seen at 9,078, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 9,313.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8575-9313.

* Crude oil fell after a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon boosted hopes for a broader agreement to end war.

* U.S. President Donald Trump suggested there could be progress in negotiations with Iran as soon as this weekend.

* US energy firms pull crude from SPR for 10th week, stocks fall to lowest since Jan 2024, EIA says

Natural gas

Natural gas prices advanced sharply by 3.87% to settle at 321.9, supported by expectations of warmer weather, stronger cooling demand, and declining production levels across the United States. Market sentiment remained bullish as weather forecasts indicated above-normal temperatures through mid-June, increasing air-conditioning usage and boosting natural gas consumption by power generators. Since gas-fired plants account for nearly 40% of U.S. electricity generation, rising temperatures are expected to provide significant support to demand in the coming weeks. On the supply side, production trends added further strength to prices. According to LSEG, average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states declined to 108.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from 109.7 bcfd in May. Daily production dropped by approximately 3.1 bcfd over the past six days to a four-month low of 107.4 bcfd, primarily due to reduced output in Texas and Arkansas. At the same time, total gas demand, including exports, is projected to increase from 98.4 bcfd this week to 100.5 bcfd next week, reflecting improving consumption fundamentals. Storage data provided additional support to the market. U.S. utilities injected 95 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the latest reporting week, below market expectations of a 101 Bcf build. Total inventories reached 2.578 trillion cubic feet, slightly below year-ago levels but still above the five-year average. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects natural gas production to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027, although domestic demand is projected to remain relatively stable. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 19.68% to 21,281 contracts. Natural gas has immediate support at 312.4, with a break below this level potentially testing 303. Resistance is seen at 327, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 332.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 303-332.2.

* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for warmer weather and higher demand and a continued drop in output in recent days.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states dropped to 108.5 bcfd so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May

* Output fell by 3.1 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary four-month low of 107.4 bcfd due mostly to declines in Texas and Arkansas.

Copper

Copper prices settled higher by 0.62% at 1,376.35, supported by tightening exchange inventories, improving Chinese demand indicators, and persistent concerns over global mine supply growth. Market sentiment remained firm as London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories declined to 379,975 tonnes, the lowest level since early April. Available stocks continued to shrink as large volumes were earmarked for withdrawal, reflecting tighter near-term physical availability. The narrowing LME cash-to-three-month discount and rising cancelled warrants further highlighted growing demand for immediate metal supplies. Additional support came from China, where the central bank instructed commercial banks to increase lending, reinforcing expectations of stronger economic activity and industrial metal consumption. Copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange also declined, while China's unwrought copper imports rose 3.2% year-on-year in April to a seven-month high despite record domestic refined copper production. Strong investment in power grid infrastructure remains a major demand driver, with spending rising 37% during the first quarter of 2026. Supply-side concerns also continued to underpin prices. Production disruptions linked to shortages of sulfur and sulfuric acid in Chile have forced some refiners to reduce operating rates, while recovery challenges at major mines including Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula have limited expectations for near-term output growth. Although the International Copper Study Group expects the global refined copper market to remain in surplus during 2026 and 2027, projected mine supply growth has been revised lower due to operational constraints in key producing regions. Major financial institutions remain constructive on the longer-term outlook. Goldman Sachs and Citi have both raised copper price forecasts, citing tighter global balances, slower mine supply growth, strong U.S. imports, and resilient demand trends. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest marginally lower by 0.01% at 17,290 contracts while prices moved higher. Copper has immediate support at 1,364.6, with a break below this level potentially testing 1,352.8. Resistance is seen at 1,383.6, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 1,390.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1352.8-1390.8.

* Copper gained as LME copper inventories fell to 379,975 tons, the lowest since April 2.

* The LME cash-to-three-month copper discount narrowed to just around $4 a ton on June 3 from $77 on May 19

* U.S. Department of Commerce is due to make a recommendation to President Donald Trump on copper tariffs by the end of the month.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled lower by 0.42% at 371.75 as concerns over a prolonged higher interest rate environment in the United States and improving prospects for a diplomatic resolution between Washington and Tehran weighed on sentiment across the base metals complex. Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, particularly higher job openings and robust private sector hiring figures, supported the U.S. dollar and reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, creating additional pressure on metal prices. Despite the decline, downside remained limited due to tightening global supply conditions. Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru, the largest zinc smelter in Latin America, following a fire that damaged key infrastructure. The disruption came shortly after an explosion at Glencore-owned Kazzinc's zinc and lead facilities in Kazakhstan, which forced operations to run at reduced capacity. These incidents have reinforced concerns over refined zinc availability, particularly as the International Lead and Zinc Study Group had already projected a refined zinc deficit for the year. Inventory trends continue to provide underlying support. London Metal Exchange zinc stocks remain low at 111,250 tonnes, representing less than three days of global consumption. However, the cash-to-three-month zinc spread remained in discount territory, indicating that immediate physical tightness has yet to emerge. Meanwhile, zinc inventories in Shanghai warehouses increased slightly, while China's central bank reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining accommodative monetary policies to support domestic demand and economic growth. On the supply side, some of the bullish impact was offset by plans to resume production at Sweden's Garpenberg mine and increased output targets from Japanese producers. The global zinc market surplus narrowed significantly in March, although first-quarter surpluses remained above year-ago levels. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 5.93% to 2,743 contracts. Zinc has immediate support at 369.4, with a break below this level potentially testing 366.9. Resistance is seen at 374.0, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 376.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 366.9-376.1.

* Zinc dropped as concerns over a high-for-longer U.S. interest rate and on hopes for a quick resolution between Washington and Tehran.

* Pressure also seen as stronger-than-expected U.S. job openings reading weighed on metals, supporting the dollar.

* However downside seen limited supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled lower by 0.74% at 390.1 as traders booked profits following recent gains, despite ongoing concerns over tightening global supplies. The market remained supported by persistent supply disruptions and historically low inventory levels, which continue to underpin the broader price outlook. London Metal Exchange aluminium inventories declined to 335,450 tonnes, the lowest level in nearly four years, while the cash aluminium contract traded at a premium of $116.50 per tonne over the three-month contract, the highest level in at least 17 years, highlighting significant near-term market tightness. Supply concerns remain elevated due to operational disruptions across key producing regions. Emirates Global Aluminium's flagship smelter is expected to take up to a year to return to full capacity, while Bahrain's ALBA continues to operate below normal levels. Additional uncertainty has emerged from Guinea, where tighter controls on bauxite exports have raised concerns about raw material availability for global alumina and aluminium producers. Furthermore, primary aluminium production in the Gulf region fell sharply in April, dropping 35% year-on-year as geopolitical tensions impacted regional smelting operations. On the demand side, supportive economic indicators from China provided some optimism. Chinese industrial profits expanded at the fastest pace since late 2023, while imports of unwrought aluminium and related products increased 6.9% year-on-year in March. China's aluminium exports also surged 15% in April, reaching the highest monthly level in more than a year as stronger overseas prices encouraged shipments. Meanwhile, domestic aluminium production remained robust, rising 3.1% year-on-year in April due to healthy operating margins. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 6.77% to 3,817 contracts while prices moved lower. Aluminium has immediate support at 387.2, with a break below this level potentially testing 384.2. Resistance is seen at 393.3, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 396.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 384.2-396.4.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices gained as the market continued to grapple with supply disruptions.

* LME inventories dwindled to 335,450 tons, the lowest in almost four years.

* EGA’s flagship smelter is expected to take up to a year to return to full capacity, while operations at Bahrain's ALBA remain partially suspended.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 0.97% to settle at 15,578 as increased arrivals across major producing regions created short-term supply pressure in the market. Farmers in Telangana and Maharashtra accelerated stock liquidation to generate funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, leading to higher arrivals in local mandis. Additional pressure emerged from the arrival of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric, which resulted in aggressive discounting of average-quality produce. The absence of any major weather disruptions during the post-harvest period also removed a key weather-related risk premium from prices. Despite the decline, downside remained limited due to underlying supply concerns and strong demand for premium-quality stocks. Arrivals in key markets across Maharashtra and Telangana have remained below normal for the peak marketing season, creating localized supply tightness. Quality issues, including moisture-related rhizome rot in some producing areas, have reduced the availability of export-grade and double-polished turmeric. In major trading centers such as Sangli and Nizamabad, many farmers and stockists continue to hold inventories in anticipation of higher prices, while premium Salem Fali varieties are commanding substantial price premiums. Fundamental support also stems from tightening carry-forward stocks, which are estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to more than 20 lakh bags last season. Export-oriented demand remains supportive, with growing orders for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers and steady procurement interest from Bangladesh. Additionally, the Union Agriculture Ministry's downward revision of turmeric production estimates to 1.140 million tonnes has strengthened long-term market sentiment. Concerns regarding a potentially below-normal monsoon and rising temperatures affecting stored stocks are also contributing to a supportive medium-term outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.18% to 19,210 contracts. Turmeric has immediate support at 15,434, with a break below this level potentially testing 15,288. Resistance is seen at 15,782, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward 15,984.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15288-15984.

* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut".

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* Increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric have led to aggressive price discounting for "average" quality lots.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15559.75 Rupees dropped by -0.37 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled marginally higher by 0.24% at 18,905, supported by concerns over the availability of premium-quality supplies and renewed export demand from international buyers. Market sentiment improved as European and North American importers returned to the market, particularly seeking residue-compliant and high-specification cumin lots. In addition, large industrial processors have started replenishing inventories at current price levels, providing support to demand. Weather-related disruptions, including thunderstorms and hailstorms in parts of Rajasthan during the harvest period, have raised concerns over the availability of high-quality A-grade produce. Further support came from reports that unseasonal rains in North-West India delayed drying and processing activities, temporarily restricting the supply of premium-grade material. Market participants also noted that carry-forward stocks of high-quality Sortex-grade jeera are lower than last year, helping maintain firm premiums for superior quality produce. Estimates indicate that India's jeera production may decline significantly this season, with output projected at around 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year, largely due to lower acreage and reduced yields in Gujarat and Rajasthan. However, gains remained limited as fresh arrivals from major Rajasthan producing regions increased substantially. Favorable weather conditions allowed harvesting activities to progress smoothly, resulting in a larger-than-expected influx of new crop supplies. Farmers are actively selling stocks to generate liquidity ahead of the Kharif planting season, while daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have stabilized at elevated levels near 28,500 bags, creating short-term supply pressure. Export performance also remains mixed, with cumulative annual shipments showing a notable decline despite some month-on-month improvement in March. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 3.8% to 8,436 contracts while prices moved higher. Jeera has immediate support at 18,830, with a break below this level potentially testing 18,740. Resistance is seen at 18,980, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 19,040.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18740-19040.

* Jeera gains as availability of premium quality, bold seeds is shrinking.

* European and North American buyers have re-entered the market, specifically targeting residue-compliant and high-specification lots.

* Large industrial processors have started increasing their "hand-to-mouth" inventory levels at these lower price points.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19515.65 Rupees dropped by -0.35 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views