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Gold

Gold settled sharply lower by 1.77% at Rs151,729, extending losses as elevated U.S. Treasury yields reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion. U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since January 2025 amid rising Middle East tensions and renewed inflation concerns, triggering a global bond selloff. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that policymakers would have more work to do if they lacked confidence that inflation was returning toward the 2% target, while markets are currently pricing a 66% chance of an interest rate hike later this month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors now await the ADP employment report and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. Geopolitical risks remain elevated after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened further strikes against Iran following renewed direct attacks, although the immediate inflationary impact of higher energy and commodity prices remains a key concern. Physical demand also weakened, with Indian gold discounts widening sharply to as much as $135 per ounce over official domestic prices, compared with $65 last week, marking the deepest discount in three months. Market speculation that the government could reconsider the recent increase in gold and silver import duties has further weighed on buying interest. In China, bullion traded at discounts of $2–$5 per ounce, while Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan remained close to global benchmark prices. London vault holdings stood at 9,464 tonnes at end-June 2026, up 0.77% month-on-month and valued at around $1.2 trillion, equivalent to approximately 757,145 gold bars. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 3% to 11,288 contracts while prices fell Rs2,731. Gold is currently finding support at Rs150,495, and a break below this level could extend the decline toward Rs149,255. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs153,880, while a sustained move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs156,025.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149255-156025.

* Gold fell pressured by elevated U.S. Treasury yields and markets awaited key U.S. labour market data

* US yield on 10-year Treasury notes hit 19-month high

* US ADP employment report due Wednesday

Silver

Silver settled sharply lower by 1.95% at Rs235,441 as rising crude oil prices and higher bond yields intensified inflation concerns and strengthened expectations of tighter monetary policy. The U.S. dollar index regained positive momentum amid a global bond selloff, with rising sovereign borrowing costs across Europe adding further pressure on precious metals. Geopolitical tensions also remained elevated after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran “hard” following renewed military exchanges, with the U.S. targeting Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island and Iran retaliating with attacks on the UAE and Jordan. Markets are now focused on Friday’s U.S. August payrolls report and consumer price data due on September 11 for clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook, while the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 9–10 meeting. Despite the recent price weakness, speculative positioning remained supportive, with COMEX silver speculators increasing net long positions by 2,467 contracts to 13,235 contracts for the week ended August 25. London vault holdings stood at 28,082 tonnes at end-June 2026, up 1.7% month-on-month and valued at approximately $53.1 billion, equivalent to around 936,052 silver bars. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with the deficit projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. However, total demand is forecast to decline 2%, while industrial fabrication may fall 3% to a four-year low, partly offset by an 18% increase in coin and bar demand. Total supply is also expected to decline 2%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 19.08% to 12,154 contracts while prices declined Rs4,680. Silver is finding support at Rs232,730, and a break below this level could expose Rs230,025. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs239,970, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs244,505.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 230025-244505.

* Silver dropped as rising oil prices and bond yields stoked worries about inflation and interest-rate hikes.

* The U.S. dollar index regained positive traction as a global bond rout deepened

* U.S. President Trump has threatened to hit Iran "hard" after the two foes traded fire for the first time in over a month.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled sharply higher by 4.75% at Rs8,536 as renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges intensified concerns over energy supply disruptions and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Rising geopolitical tensions increased the risk of prolonged disruptions to crude flows from the Persian Gulf, with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening further strikes against Iran after the two sides exchanged fire for the first time in more than a month. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the country was not seeking war but would respond to aggression, keeping uncertainty elevated across energy markets. Japan also plans no additional releases from its national crude reserves during September and October, while September crude procurement is expected to fall to around 80% of last year’s average monthly volume as tankers are being rerouted through the longer Suez route due to shipping risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Speculative positioning remained mixed, with combined net long positions in Brent and WTI falling to 333,914 contracts, a three-week low, while NYMEX WTI net longs increased by 538 contracts to 104,573, reaching a four-week high. U.S. crude inventories increased by 95,000 barrels to 428.9 million barrels for the week ended August 21, below expectations for a 597,000-barrel rise. Cushing stocks increased by 1.2 million barrels, while refinery utilization rose 0.2 percentage points to 97.4%. Gasoline inventories declined by 2.5 million barrels to 206.8 million barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels to 103.4 million barrels, indicating firm refined-product demand. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, although it raised its 2027 demand growth outlook. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 41.58% to 14,169 contracts while prices gained Rs387. Crude oil is receiving support at Rs8,292, and a break below this level could lead to Rs8,048. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs8,669, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs8,802.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8048-8802.

* Crude oil gained after the U.S. and Iran returned to tit-for-tat strikes, raising concerns about energy supplies.

* President Trump has threatened to hit Iran "hard" after the two foes traded fire for the first time in over a month.

* Japan plans no crude oil release from national reserve in September, October

Natural gas

Natural gas settled lower by 1.04% at Rs277.2 as record U.S. production and expectations of milder weather over the next two weeks weighed on demand prospects, while Tropical Storm Edouard approached the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana. The storm also caused a slight reduction in gas flows to Freeport LNG’s export facility, adding pressure to prices as tropical weather can reduce power demand and disrupt LNG operations. U.S. Lower 48 gas output averaged a record 111.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in August, surpassing the previous monthly record of 110.7 bcfd in July. Strong production and mild spring weather have kept inventories above the five-year average since March, despite periods of above-normal summer temperatures. LSEG expects average U.S. gas demand, including exports, to decline from 111.7 bcfd this week to 108.8 bcfd next week. U.S. utilities added 15 billion cubic feet of gas to storage for the week ended August 21, below expectations of 20 bcf, last year’s 17 bcf injection and the five-year average of 33 bcf. Total inventories reached 3.184 trillion cubic feet, around 0.9% below year-ago levels but 5.5% above the five-year average. The EIA expects U.S. dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to increase to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although Freeport LNG maintenance has slightly reduced the near-term export outlook. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 27.74% to 45,339 contracts while prices declined Rs2.9. Natural gas is finding support at Rs272.5, and a break below this level could trigger a decline toward Rs267.8. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs281.1, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs285.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 267.8-285.

* Natural gas fell on record output and forecasts for less hot weather over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* Gas inventories have remained in surplus despite weeks of above-normal temperatures this summer.

* Lower 48 gas output averages record 111.5 bcfd in August, LSEG says

Copper

Copper settled lower by 1.24% at Rs1,372.4 as a stronger U.S. dollar, renewed Middle East tensions and a global bond selloff weighed on industrial metals. Hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium added further pressure, as he indicated that the Fed may need to raise interest rates if inflation remains above target, raising concerns over borrowing costs, economic growth and metals demand. Supply-side developments provided some support, with total copper stocks in SHFE-monitored warehouses declining more than 19% last week, while on-warrant stocks stood at 31,462 tonnes. Chilean copper production fell 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tonnes from 445,322 tonnes, mainly due to severe weather disruptions in northern mining regions and maintenance at major operations. Speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX copper by 2,780 contracts to 76,446 contracts, indicating some moderation in bullish positioning. The global refined copper market moved into a 60,000-tonne deficit in June from a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, according to the International Copper Study Group, although the market still recorded a 131,000-tonne surplus during the first six months of the year. June refined copper production stood at 2.37 million tonnes, while consumption reached 2.43 million tonnes. China’s unwrought copper and copper product imports declined 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-July imports fell 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes. Copper ore and concentrate imports also declined, while Chinese refined copper production increased 1.3% year-on-year to 1.29 million tonnes in July. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 4.26% to 10,979 contracts while prices fell Rs17.3. Copper is finding support at Rs1,362.4, and a break below this level could expose Rs1,352.5. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,389.1, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs1,405.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1352.5-1405.9.

* Copper prices dropped amid a stronger dollar and a global bond selloff

* UBS sees copper market deficit to widen to 379,000 metric tons in 2027, from 219,000 metric tons in 2026

* UBS retains constructive view on copper, expects prices to reach its target of $15,500/mt for coming quarters

Zinc

Zinc settled marginally lower by 0.23% at Rs416.45 as profit booking emerged after a strong recent rally supported by supply concerns and limited availability outside China. Falling refined zinc inventories, tight concentrate supply and speculative buying have strengthened the market, with August marking the strongest monthly performance since January on both the LME and SHFE. Available LME zinc inventories declined 28% in less than a week to 68,250 tonnes, their lowest level since December 2025, highlighting tightening overseas availability. Zinc concentrate treatment charges have turned sharply negative as refiners face severe raw material shortages, while bullish speculative positions on the LME reached their highest level since the second quarter of 2022. Supply concerns were reinforced by lower production from major producers, including Glencore, Boliden and MMG. Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, down 21% year-on-year, although it maintained its full-year guidance of 700,000–740,000 tonnes. Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half and retained its annual guidance of 215,000–235,000 tonnes. Nexa produced 79.3 thousand tonnes in the second quarter, up 8% year-on-year, supported by higher ore grades, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and maintained its full-year guidance. The global refined zinc market shifted into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market still recorded a 120,000-tonne surplus. China’s refined zinc output reached 641,000 tonnes in May, up 10% year-on-year, reflecting strong smelter operations. However, elevated prices are weakening demand and discouraging buyers in China, limiting further upside. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.06% to 2,621 contracts while prices fell Rs0.95. Zinc has support at Rs412.8, and a break below could test Rs409.2. Resistance is placed at Rs421, while a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs425.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 409.2-425.6.

* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained supported by supply concerns.

* Available LME inventories, slumped to 68,250 tons, down 28% in less than a week to their weakest since December last year.

* Bullish speculative positions on the LME are at their largest since the second quarter of 2022.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled marginally lower by 0.10% at Rs346.75 as concerns over China’s economic activity and expectations of improving Middle East supply capped gains, although tighter inventories and supportive fiscal measures provided some stability. China’s official manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in August from 49.2 in July, beating expectations of 49.6 but remaining below the 50 threshold, indicating continued contraction. Aluminium inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 3% from the previous week, while stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at end-July as Middle East supply disruptions reduced imports. However, the premium offered to Japanese buyers for October-December primary aluminium shipments fell 22% to $310 per tonne from $395 in the previous quarter, reflecting expectations of improving availability. EGA and Alba are restoring production, while EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% capacity and is expected to return toward previous output levels in early 2027. China’s aluminium production increased 3.8% year-on-year to 3.9 million tonnes in July, while global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% to 6.16 million tonnes. Middle East production plunged 44% year-on-year to 293,000 tonnes due to disruptions from the Iran conflict, significantly weighing on global supply. China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and semis rose 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes in July, although they declined 9.6% month-on-month. Supply concerns also persisted as Norsk Hydro reduced output at Alunorte due to lower natural gas availability, while Alcoa cut its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes. China’s slower growth, with second-quarter GDP at 4.3%, may require additional policy support. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.96% to 4,354 contracts while prices fell Rs0.35. Aluminium has support at Rs345, and a break below could test Rs343.1. Resistance is placed at Rs348.3, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs349.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 343.1-349.7.

* Aluminium dropped as China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the second consecutive month in August

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 201,000 metric tons at the end of July, down 8.8% from the previous month.

* EGA and Alba Aluminium in the Middle East are ramping up production resumption at a fairly fast pace.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled sharply lower by 3.50% at Rs20,018 as profit booking intensified after improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased concerns over crop damage and water availability. Key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have also improved, ensuring reliable water supply during the vegetative stage and reducing immediate crop failure fears. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has been completed following rainfall, while crop conditions are improving, creating a softer production outlook. However, downside remains limited by structurally tight supplies, reduced carry-forward stocks and concerns over the potential impact of El Nino on the newly sown crop. Industry estimates suggest carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the supply buffer. Farmer selling during the peak harvest window has increased immediate availability, while cautious stockist activity continues to manage supply. European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, putting pressure on commercial-grade turmeric but supporting demand and premiums for IPM-certified stocks. Export demand remains encouraging, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes, while April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes. China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay recorded strong growth in shipments, indicating broad-based international demand. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices ended at Rs20,021.25, down 0.40%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.19% to 36,225 contracts while prices fell Rs726. Turmeric is currently finding support at Rs19,724, and a break below this level could expose Rs19,432. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs20,564, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs21,112.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19432-21112.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as revival of monsoon activity eased dry-weather fears.

* Re-sowing completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, crop conditions improve.

* Traders are closely monitoring whether the improved weather will translate into sustained production.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20021.25 Rupees dropped by -0.4 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled lower by 0.71% at Rs21,035 as aggressive farmer liquidation increased ahead of the upcoming season, with favorable weather in North-West India allowing faster harvesting and drying and accelerating deliveries. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced the urgency for spot procurement, while large industrial spice grinders and domestic processors remain cautious, preferring to wait for lower prices before committing to bulk purchases. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also weighing on Indian export premiums, while geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt logistics and limit demand from traditional buyers. However, downside remains limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, as export-grade high-purity supplies are shrinking faster than overall physical availability. Arrivals at major markets including Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat areas have affected crop quality and harvestable volumes. Production estimates for India are around 90–92 lakh bags this season, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Overseas production is also facing challenges, with China’s output estimated at 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes respectively. Export demand remains mixed, with India’s jeera exports falling 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports declined 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Strong growth in shipments to Singapore, Oman and Argentina provided some support but was insufficient to offset the overall decline. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs20,888.60, up 0.02%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 6.15% to 7,464 contracts while prices fell Rs150. Jeera is finding support at Rs20,840, and a break below could test Rs20,630. Resistance is placed at Rs21,270, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs21,490.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20630-21490.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the upcoming season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.

* Large industrial spice grinders are staying away from bulk purchases, waiting for the market to bottom out.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20888.6 Rupees gained by 0.02 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views