MCX Natural gas September is expected to hold support near Rs 270 level and rise towards Rs 285 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is expected to face resistance near $4400 and dip towards $4200 level on strong dollar and rising global treasury yields. Meanwhile, higher crude oil prices have reignited inflation concerns, boosting the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by major central banks. According to CME Fed-Watch Tool, traders now see a 67% chance of U.S. rate hike in September, compared to 36% before Warsh's comments, and an 91% chance of a December increase. Meanwhile, focus will shift to today’s US ADP Non-Farm employment data. Any sign of moderation in the labor market would limit downside in prices.
• MCX Gold October is expected to face resistance near Rs154,000 and dip towards Rs149,000 and Rs148,000 level.
• MCX Silver December is expected to move in a wide range between Rs 227,000 and Rs 234,000 level. Only a move below Rs 227,000, it would dip towards Rs 225,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade lower on strong dollar and hawkish interest rate signal from major central banks. Further, renewed conflict between US and Iran increased risk-off sentiments causing demand concerns. Prices would likely to remain under pressure on easing global supplies. Further, higher spot premiums would also hurt demand prospects. China's Yangshan copper import premium stands at roughly $85 per metric ton, easing from a peak of around $115 to $119 per metric ton reached earlier in July.
• MCX Copper September is expected to slip towards Rs1365 level as long as it trades under Rs1390 level. Only a move below Rs1365 level, it will slip towards Rs1355- Rs1360 levels.
• MCX Aluminum September is expected to hold support near Rs 342 level and rise towards Rs348-Rs352. Renewed tension in the Middle East would hurt supplies and provide support to prices. MCX Zinc September is likely to slip towards Rs 410 level as long as it trades under Rs 420 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude futures are expected to trade higher as escalating hostilities between US and Iran heighten concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy flows. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened a significantly larger response to any Iranian retaliation. Any signs of further escalation could severely impact global supplies and drive prices upward. Shrinking global inventories of crude oil and its derivatives are also providing market support. Meanwhile, investors remain focused on today’s weekly EIA inventory data, which could trigger further price volatility.
• NYMEX crude oil is expected to rise towards $95 per barrel as long as it holds above $90 mark. MCX Crude oil September is expected to rise towards Rs 8800- Rs 9000 as long as it holds above Rs 8200 level.
• MCX Natural gas September is expected to hold support near Rs 270 level and rise towards Rs 285 level.
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