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Gold

Gold prices ended higher by 0.4%, settling at Rs 140,906, as bargain buying emerged after recent declines, supported by Goldman Sachs' expectations of continued central bank gold purchases. Despite the daily recovery, bullion posted a weekly decline as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran lifted crude oil prices, increasing inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a tighter monetary policy for longer. Geopolitical developments remained a major market driver after Iran launched fresh strikes on U.S. facilities in the Middle East following continued U.S. military operations. Rising tensions have heightened uncertainty over global energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, boosting inflation expectations. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials adopted a more hawkish tone. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan openly supported an interest rate hike, while Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson indicated additional tightening remains possible if inflation fails to moderate. CME FedWatch data now reflects nearly a 50% probability of a September rate increase. Economic data also reinforced the stronger U.S. economy narrative. Industrial production increased by 0.1% in June, while housing starts surged 19% to an annualized 1.427 million units, significantly exceeding market expectations. In physical markets, Indian gold discounts widened sharply to $45 per ounce amid weak jewellery demand, whereas Chinese premiums remained broadly stable. London vault holdings increased 0.77% to 9,464 tonnes, highlighting continued institutional gold accumulation. From a technical perspective, gold witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 11.49% while prices advanced. Immediate support is placed at Rs 140,120, followed by Rs 139,335. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 141,370, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 141,835, keeping near-term sentiment cautiously positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 139335-141835.

*  Gold recovered as some investors bought on dips following a Goldman Sachs estimate indicating more central bank purchases.

*  US industrial production rose 0.1% month-over-month in June 2026, matching May’s pace.

*  Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declared his determination to bring inflation down without specifically hinting at how.

Silver 

Silver prices edged higher by 0.18%, settling at Rs 216,403, supported by short covering as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East strengthened safe-haven demand. The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran pushed energy prices higher, raising inflation concerns and increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive monetary policy for a longer period. Market sentiment remained focused on geopolitical developments after Iran launched fresh strikes on U.S. facilities following continued U.S. military operations that disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher crude oil prices reinforced inflation risks, while Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish stance. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported another interest rate hike, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson indicated tighter policy would be appropriate if inflation failed to improve. Markets are currently pricing nearly a 50% probability of a September rate increase. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation data showed consumer and producer prices declined during June, although import prices unexpectedly increased. Silver fundamentals presented a mixed picture. ANZ expects silver to remain closely linked with gold in the near term but believes improving industrial demand will provide stronger medium- to long-term support. London vault holdings increased 1.7% during June to 28,082 tonnes, reflecting healthy institutional inventories. In contrast, India's silver imports plunged 87% in value and 94% in volume during May following tighter import restrictions and higher import duties, aimed at reducing precious metal imports and easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves. From a technical perspective, silver witnessed fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.76% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 214,375, followed by Rs 212,350. Resistance is seen at Rs 217,830, and a decisive breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 219,260, indicating a constructive near-term technical outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 212350-219260.

* Silver gained on short covering as the US-Iran conflict boosted energy prices, which ultimately drive inflation higher.

* Adding to the pressure, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for a rate hike.

* Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he would support tighter policy if inflation failed to show near-term improvement.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices surged 4.35% to settle at Rs 7,945, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions across the Middle East that intensified concerns over global oil supply disruptions. Safe-haven buying strengthened after Iran expanded retaliatory attacks against U.S. interests, while fears of disruptions through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea significantly lifted risk premiums in the energy market. The geopolitical situation remained the dominant market driver as Iran reportedly targeted U.S. facilities across several Gulf countries following continued U.S. military strikes on Iranian positions. Reports also suggested Iran instructed Houthi forces to prepare for possible disruptions to Red Sea shipping, while commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted. Supply concerns were further amplified after U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks fell by around 3 million barrels to 316.5 million barrels, the lowest level since April 1983, highlighting tightening emergency reserves. Fundamental data presented a mixed outlook. U.S. commercial crude inventories declined by 1.693 million barrels, although the draw was smaller than market expectations, while gasoline inventories fell sharply and refinery activity improved. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the third consecutive month to 780,000 barrels per day, reflecting weaker consumption expectations. However, the producer group raised its 2027 demand outlook and approved another 188,000 barrels per day production increase from August, although actual supply remains constrained by regional conflicts. From a technical perspective, crude oil witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 37.84% while prices rallied sharply. Immediate support is placed at Rs 7,692, followed by Rs 7,440. Resistance is seen at Rs 8,078, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 8,212, keeping the near-term technical bias firmly positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7440-8212.

* Crude oil prices rose after the U.S. and Iran stepped up attacks across the Gulf.

* Strait of Hormuz flows have slowed after last month's truce collapsed

* Iran pressed Houthis to disrupt Red Sea shipping if U.S. hits power sites

Natural gas

Natural gas prices gained 2.47% to settle at Rs 281.70, supported by short covering and improving demand expectations. Market sentiment strengthened after forecasts pointed to higher gas consumption over the coming weeks, aided by increased feedgas flows to the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas following earlier operational disruptions. Fundamental indicators remained broadly supportive despite abundant supplies. U.S. dry gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 110.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, slightly above June levels but still below the record 110.6 bcfd reached in December 2025. Weather forecasts indicate temperatures will remain above normal through early August, increasing electricity demand for air conditioning and supporting higher natural gas consumption. LSEG projects total U.S. gas demand, including exports, will remain around 111.5 bcfd, while LNG export flows continue to average 17.4 bcfd during July. Storage data reflected a balanced market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 41 billion cubic feet injection into storage for the week ended July 10, bringing total inventories to 3,024 bcf. Although inventories remain 6.4% above the five-year average, they are 0.7% below the corresponding level last year, as stronger LNG exports continue to absorb part of the record domestic production. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. natural gas production and demand to reach record highs over the next two years. Production is projected to increase to 111.2 bcfd in 2026, while LNG exports are forecast to rise to 17.4 bcfd next year. From a technical perspective, natural gas witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 17.82% while prices advanced. Immediate support is placed at Rs 276.80, followed by Rs 272.00. Resistance is seen at Rs 284.40, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 287.20, maintaining a positive near-term technical outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 272-287.2.

* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for more demand, including the increase in feedgas at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas.

* Storage seen 6.5% above five-year norm in week ended July 17

* European and Asian gas benchmarks climb to multiweek highs near $19 to $20

Copper

Copper prices declined 0.47% to settle at Rs 1,302.35, pressured by broad-based selling across industrial metals as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran reduced investors’ appetite for risk assets. Market sentiment was also weighed down by weaker Chinese economic data, although supply disruptions in Chile helped limit the downside. China’s economy continued to show signs of slowing, with GDP growth easing to a 3.5-year low, reflecting weak domestic demand. The softer outlook was reinforced by a 7% year-on-year decline in China’s cumulative copper imports during January to May, despite refined copper production increasing 2.2% to 1.26 million tonnes in May. Meanwhile, global copper inventories remained elevated, with combined stocks across the LME, COMEX, and SHFE reaching 1.145 million tonnes, the highest level since January 2003, while the deeper LME contango indicated comfortable near-term supply. Despite the bearish demand outlook, supply-side concerns provided support. A powerful storm in Chile disrupted mining operations through widespread power outages. Production at major mines weakened sharply, with Codelco output down 18.3%, Escondida down 17.6%, and Collahuasi down 19.3% during May. Additionally, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories declined 20.3% over the week, while the International Copper Study Group reported a 145,000-tonne refined copper deficit in April, reflecting stronger consumption relative to production during the month. From a technical perspective, copper witnessed long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.07% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 1,294, followed by Rs 1,285.70. Resistance is seen at Rs 1,307.60, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 1,312.90, although near-term sentiment remains cautious.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1285.7-1312.9.

* Copper dropped as the escalating conflict between the US and Iran triggered a broad selloff across metals markets.

* Investors weighed gloomy Chinese macroeconomic conditions with lower U.S. consumer inflation data.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 20.30% from last Friday.

Zinc 

Zinc prices declined 1.10% to settle at Rs 373.15, tracking weakness across global equity and industrial metal markets as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened inflation concerns and clouded the outlook for global manufacturing demand. However, losses remained limited due to tightening near-term supply conditions and improving manufacturing activity across major economies. China’s economic growth slowed to a 3.5-year low, reflecting persistent weakness in domestic demand despite policy support from the central bank, which reiterated its commitment to maintaining an accommodative monetary stance. At the same time, manufacturing data from China, Europe, and the United States remained resilient despite rising input costs, providing some support to industrial metals. China’s refined zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories declined 0.28%, indicating steady domestic consumption. Supply-side developments continued to provide a supportive backdrop. Production disruptions at Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan, Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru, and operational concerns at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine have tightened refined zinc availability. Although the International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 tonnes in April from 56,300 tonnes in March, Goldman Sachs expects a modest global surplus this year before slower mine supply growth potentially shifts the market outside China into deficit during 2027 and 2028. From a technical perspective, zinc witnessed long liquidation, with open interest declining 5.31% alongside weaker prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 371.30, followed by Rs 369.50. Resistance is seen at Rs 375.60, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 378.10, while the broader outlook remains balanced between improving supply fundamentals and uncertain demand conditions.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 369.5-378.1.

* Zinc fell as escalating tensions in the Middle East spurred inflation concerns and cast a shadow over the demand outlook.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 0.28% from last Friday.

* GDP growth in China cooled to a 3.5-year low, missing forecasts on weak domestic demand.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined 0.39% to settle at Rs 342.95, pressured by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that lifted crude oil prices and reinforced expectations of higher global interest rates. Despite the decline, downside remained limited as tightening exchange inventories and supply disruptions continued to provide underlying support to the market. Supply-side fundamentals remained mixed. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes following operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia caused by Cyclone Narelle and bauxite contamination. At the same time, visible aluminium inventories in LME warehouses fell to their lowest levels since 2022, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks declined 1.12%, reflecting relatively tight near-term availability. Meanwhile, Emirates Global Aluminium restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery after a three-and-a-half-month outage, with production expected to gradually recover to full capacity by year-end. China continued to dominate the supply outlook. Aluminium production increased 1.7% year-on-year in May to 3.89 million tonnes, while exports of unwrought aluminium and products surged to a record 711,000 tonnes in June, bringing first-half exports up 16.3% year-on-year to 3.4 million tonnes. Japanese buyers also agreed to pay a $395 per tonne premium for third-quarter shipments, reflecting firm regional demand. However, Morgan Stanley expects the global aluminium deficit to narrow in 2026 before the market moves into surplus from 2027 as supply growth accelerates. From a technical perspective, aluminium witnessed long liquidation, with open interest declining 7.56% alongside weaker prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 341.20, followed by Rs 339.40. Resistance is seen at Rs 344.60, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 346.20, keeping the near-term outlook cautiously balanced.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 339.4-346.2.

* Aluminium dropped weighed by renewed tensions in the Middle East lifted oil prices and heightened inflation concerns.

* Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 1.12% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rallied 3.82% to settle at Rs 21,750, supported by sharply lower market arrivals, tight spot supplies, and steady export demand. Arrivals declined to nearly 8,500 bags from 18,000 bags in the previous session, mainly due to the closure of major markets in Maharashtra, strengthening buying interest amid limited physical availability. Weather conditions remain a key factor for the upcoming crop. Good rainfall across major turmeric-growing regions over the past week is expected to accelerate Kharif sowing, while elevated prices near multi-year highs are likely to encourage higher acreage. However, the final production outlook will depend on the distribution of monsoon rainfall in the coming weeks, particularly amid concerns regarding the possible influence of El Niño. Improved rainfall has slightly eased concerns over the next crop, although overall market supplies remain structurally tight because of lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks. Fundamental conditions continue to provide mixed signals. Carry-forward inventories are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than more than 20 lakh bags last season, keeping overall availability tight. At the same time, increased farmer selling during the peak marketing season and quality concerns related to Rhizome Rot have created intermittent pressure on prices. Export performance remained stable, with India's turmeric exports increasing 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026. Strong demand from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan helped offset weaker shipments to the UAE and the United States, while demand for IPM-certified turmeric from Europe remained supportive. From a technical perspective, turmeric witnessed short covering, with open interest remaining unchanged while prices advanced sharply. Immediate support is placed at Rs 21,018, followed by Rs 20,288. Resistance is seen at Rs 22,164, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 22,580, maintaining a positive near-term technical outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20288-22580.

* Turmeric prices gained due to lower arrivals, tight spot supplies, steady export demand.

* Total arrivals were estimated at around 8,500 bags, down sharply from 18,000 bags in the previous session.

* Good rainfall has been reported over the past five to six days, which is expected to accelerate sowing activities.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20045.8 Rupees gained by 3.62 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera prices advanced 1.33% to settle at Rs 21,010, supported by tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds. While overall crop availability remains adequate, export-grade, high-purity jeera has become increasingly scarce as daily arrivals in major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan continue to decline, supporting prices in the physical market. Supply and demand fundamentals remain mixed. Farmers are actively liquidating stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing, while favourable weather enabled faster harvesting and deliveries, increasing short-term market supplies. At the same time, NCDEX warehouse stocks have continued to build, reducing the urgency for spot procurement. Industrial spice processors and stockists remain cautious, preferring hand-to-mouth purchases instead of aggressive forward buying, which has limited stronger price gains despite tighter availability of premium-quality seeds. Export demand also presents a balanced picture. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have disrupted logistics and weakened buying from traditional importers, while expected Chinese purchases have remained irregular and price-sensitive. However, European and North American buyers have shown increased interest in residue-compliant, high-quality lots. India’s jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year to 16,254 tonnes in April 2026, mainly due to a sharp fall in shipments to the UAE. Nevertheless, exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil recorded strong growth, partially offsetting weaker demand from traditional markets. Lower domestic production estimates of around 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, continue to provide medium-term support. From a technical perspective, jeera witnessed fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.53% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 20,810, followed by Rs 20,600. Resistance is seen at Rs 21,160, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 21,300, indicating a positive near-term technical bias.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20600-21300.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20495.45 Rupees dropped by -0.05 percent.

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