MCX Silver Bearish Below Rs 221,000 - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot gold is likely to face a hurdle near $4,070–$4,100 zone and likely to trade lower towards $3,950 amid strong dollar. Escalating Middle East tensions are raising inflation concerns, which could lead to tighter monetary policy. The U.S. has carried out multiple strikes against Iran over the weekend. Iran has also declared that the ceasefire with the US had effectively collapsed. Higher inflation concerns has lifted the probability of rate hike in September to 61%, which is likely to weigh on bullion prices. Additionally, ongoing ETF outflows are expected to pressure prices. Moving forward, investors will closely monitor key U.S. economic data and this week’s monetary policy from ECB for more cues.
• MCX Gold Aug is expected to face hurdle near Rs 142,000 level and likely to slip towards Rs 140,000 level. Only a move below Rs 140,000, it would turn lower towards Rs 137,500.
• MCX Silver September is expected to slip towards Rs 210,000 as long as it trades under Rs 221,000.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade lower amid soft demand and mixed economic indicators from China, alongside heightened geopolitical risks. The prospect of tight monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve is also weighing on the metal. Moreover, no major changes by the PBOC in its key lending rates for a 14th straight month would also weigh on investor sentiments following the weaker set of economic numbers. However, the downside remains limited by tightening physical market conditions. Depleting LME stockpiles and falling treatment and refining charges point to a severe shortage of raw materials.
• MCX Copper July is expected to slip towards Rs 1290 - Rs 1295 as long as it trades under Rs 1320 level.
• MCX Aluminum July is expected to move higher towards Rs 345 - Rs 346, as long as it stays above Rs 339. MCX Zinc July is likely to slip towards Rs 370 as long as it trades under Rs 377- Rs 378 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude is likely to hold its gains above $80 and move higher towards $85-$87 zone amid heightened geopolitical tensions between US and Iran. Iran declared that its ceasefire with the US had effectively collapsed and said over the weekend that it intercepted four vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has also expanded beyond military targets and hurting port facilities and oil supplies. The market structure has turned to backwardation suggesting supply tightness. Further, escalation and closure of Strait of Hormuz would hurt global oil supplies and keep oil prices elevated.
• On the data front, fresh OI addition seen across ATM and OTM Put strikes, with highest OI concentration at $80, which would likely to act as major support. On the upside $85 would act as immediate hurdle, which holds higher OI. MCX Crude oil August is likely to move towards Rs 8200 - Rs 8300 as long as it holds above Rs 7700.
• MCX Natural gas July is expected to hold above Rs 272 and rise towards Rs 285.
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