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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Gold is expected to hold above $2900 and trade with positive bias amid safe haven buying. Looming threat of tariffs would strengthen investment demand and increase inflows. Further, strong physical demand in US and UK amid the tariff threats would support the bullions to trade higher. Moreover, expectation of weak retail sales numbers would again weigh on the dollar and support the bullions to trade higher.

• On the data from, unwinding of OI in ATM and OTM call strike indicates prices to move higher. The call base is sifting higher from $2950 to $3000 in COMEX Gold future. MCX Gold April is expected to hold its gains above Rs 85,200 and move higher towards Rs 86,500 level.

• Sop silver, is expected to hold the 10 day EMA support at $32.00 and rise towards $32.65. Above $32.65 it would open the doors towards $33.40. MCX Silver March is expected hold the support near ?94,500 and trade higher towards Rs 96,600.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to hold its gains amid tight supply and softness in the dollar. Further, depleting inventory levels in LME and increasing prospects of tariffs would help the metal to trade higher. Additionally, strong imports from China and pick up in industrial activity would also strengthen bullish bets. Meanwhile, focus will remain on key economic numbers from China which could give further clarity in price direction.

• MCX Copper February is expected to move towards Rs 874, as long as it holds above ?855. A move above Rs 874 would open the doors towards Rs 882.

• MCX Aluminum Feb is expected to find support near 20 day EMA Rs 254.50 level and move higher towards Rs 260 level. MCX Zinc Feb is likely to hold the support at Rs 265 and move towards Rs 270 level.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to trade lower amid easing supply concerns. Beginning of talks to end the war between Russia and Ukraine has reduced supply risk. Meanwhile, a delay in potential tariffs would limit the downside. Further, bullish outlook by IEA on oil prices would limit its downside. IEA expects the global oil surplus to be only 450,000 barrels per day in 2025, which is half the surplus it has forecasted 2-month ago.

• On the data front, strong put base near the 70 put strike would act as major support. On upside unwinding of OI in ATM and OTM call strike suggest price recovery towards $73. MCX Crude oil Feb is likely to remain in the band of Rs 6100 and Rs 6300. Only a move below Rs 6100, it would turn weaker towards Rs 6000.

• MCX Natural gas Feb is expected to hold its ground and move towards Rs 328 as long as it holds above Rs 310. Forecast of colder weather in US and rising export demand would help prices to trade firm

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