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Gold

Gold prices retreated by 0.68% to 1,29,759, as traders booked profits after the metal touched a six-week high. The correction came amid strong expectations of a 25 bps U.S. Fed rate cut next week, with markets pricing in an 88% probability. Weak U.S. macro data, including a ninth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector, has reinforced the likelihood of policy easing. Investors now await the ADP employment report and the delayed September PCE inflation data for further direction. Despite the pullback, gold has gained almost every month this year and is on track for its best annual performance since 1979, supported by resilient central-bank buying and robust ETF inflows. Physical demand across Asian hubs remained subdued as high prices weighed on retail purchases. In India, despite the wedding season, dealers offered discounts of up to $18/oz, slightly lower than last week. China saw uneven premiums ranging from +$1.40 to discounts of -$16, further pressured by Beijing’s removal of the VAT exemption on gold purchases. Premiums in Singapore and Hong Kong stayed modest at up to $2.50 and $1.80 respectively. Global demand rose 3% YoY in Q3 to 1,313 tons, the highest on record, driven by a 17% surge in bar and coin demand and a 134% jump in ETF inflows. Technically, gold is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 0.75% to 13,305. Support lies at 1,28,910, with further downside toward 1,28,055, while resistance is at 1,30,710, and a breakout could lift prices to 1,31,655.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 128055-131655.

* Gold fell as investors took profits after prices reached a six-week peak, amid mounting expectations of a US interest rate cut next week.

* Traders currently assign an 88% probability to a 25bps reduction at the Fed’s upcoming meeting.

* US manufacturing sector contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November, increasing pressure on the Fed to ease policy.

Silver

Silver prices eased by 0.24% to 1,81,601, as traders booked profits after the metal hit a record high. The correction came following a six-session rally that pushed silver prices up more than 100% in 2025, reflecting strong bullish momentum. Market sentiment, however, remains broadly supportive due to expectations of a 25 bps U.S. Fed rate cut, with traders assigning an 88% probability. A string of weak U.S. macro indicators, including the ninth consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing, has strengthened the case for monetary easing. On the physical front, global supply tightness continues to underpin prices. Chinese silver stockpiles have dropped to their lowest levels since 2015, while trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have slumped to a nine-year low. China exported a record 660 tons of silver in October, much of which was redirected to London to ease the liquidity squeeze that had pushed borrowing rates sharply higher. London vault holdings rose 6.8% to 26,255 tons, boosted by inflows of 1,674 tons from China and the U.S. Still, liquidity concerns persist, as borrowing costs remain historically elevated. Meanwhile, 1,568 tons of silver have been withdrawn from Comex warehouses since early October, signaling ongoing tightness despite higher year-on-year inventories. Technically, silver is witnessing long liquidation with open interest down 6.87% to 13,736. Immediate support lies at 1,78,420, with deeper downside toward 1,75,240, while resistance is placed at 1,83,730, and a breakout could lift prices to 1,85,860.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 175240-185860.

* Silver dropped as investors took profits following a record high.

* However downside seen limited amid tight physical supply, strong industrial demand, and expectations of a US interest rate cut.

* Markets are now pricing in an 88% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting

Crude oil

Crude oil prices slipped 0.28% to 5,309, weighed by easing geopolitical concerns after U.S. diplomatic efforts signaled the possibility of a quicker-than-expected Russia–Ukraine ceasefire. Sentiment was also influenced by OPEC+ maintaining unchanged output levels for Q1 2026, marking a shift in strategy as the group balances fears of oversupply against sluggish demand. The decision includes a new mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacities for setting 2027 baselines, with evaluations scheduled from January to September 2026. Adding pressure, U.S. crude production continues to break records, rising 44,000 bpd in September to 13.84 million bpd, with New Mexico and offshore Gulf fields hitting multi-year highs. The EIA reported an overall inventory build, with crude stocks up 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million, alongside a sharp rise in gasoline (+2.5 million barrels) and distillate inventories (+1.1 million barrels).  The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook further highlighted a widening global supply–demand gap. U.S. output is now projected to average 13.59 million bpd this year, slightly higher than earlier estimates, while global liquids supply is forecast at 106 million bpd, surpassing expected consumption of 104.1 million bpd. The IEA’s monthly report also flagged an expanding surplus in 2026, with global supply growth expected to outpace demand by more than 4 million bpd. Technically, crude oil is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 3.39% to 13,602. Support is placed at 5,257, with deeper downside toward 5,206, while resistance lies at 5,360, and a breakout could push prices toward 5,412.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5206-5412.

* Crude oil slips as US efforts toward Russia-Ukraine ceasefire lift optimism

* OPEC+ agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026.

* The outcome of OPEC+ meeting marked a turning point, citing Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman

Natural gas

Natural gas prices gained 1.25% to 438.9, supported by colder weather forecasts and a sharper-than-expected storage withdrawal, both of which boosted sentiment. Uncertainty over Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations also added upside risk, as markets expect that sanctions on Russian gas exports may persist, tightening global supply flows. Meanwhile, U.S. output remains exceptionally strong. According to LSEG, Lower 48 production averaged 109.7 bcfd so far in November, surpassing October levels and nearing record highs. Despite robust output, early winter demand is strengthening sharply—LSEG projects 140.6 bcfd in total U.S. demand this week, significantly higher than last week’s 118.3 bcfd. Storage data further fueled the rally. The EIA reported an 11 bcf withdrawal versus expectations of a negligible 1 bcf draw, marking the second week of the seasonal withdrawal cycle. Total inventories now stand at 3,935 bcf, slightly below last year’s levels (–0.8%) but 4.2% above the five-year average, providing some buffer ahead of peak winter heating needs. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects continued strength in both production and consumption. U.S. dry gas output is expected to rise to 107.1 bcfd in 2025 and 107.4 bcfd in 2026, while domestic consumption is seen increasing to 91.6 bcfd in both years. Technically, natural gas is in short covering mode, with open interest down 2.23% to 23,676. Immediate support lies at 433.3, with deeper downside toward 427.6, while resistance is seen at 446.6, and a breakout could take prices toward 454.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 427.6-454.2.

* Natural gas climbed driven by forecasts for colder weather and higher demand.

* A bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal data also provided support.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.7 bcfd so far in November, up from 107.4 bcfd in October.

Copper

Copper slipped 0.3% to 1047.05, as traders booked profits after recent gains driven by tightening supply conditions. The market remained supported by concerns over reduced global output, including a 7% YoY fall in Chile’s October production to 458,405 tons and expectations of over 10% production cuts by China’s top smelters in 2026. These cuts are aimed at countering severe overcapacity and extremely low treatment and refining charges, which have turned negative this year due to tight concentrate supply. Logistical and market dynamics also played a role. Increased shipments to the U.S. continued as traders sought to benefit from elevated Comex prices amid uncertainty surrounding future tariff decisions under President Donald Trump. Volatility picked up following a temporary trading halt on the CME, tightening liquidity and widening Comex premiums. Inventory trends added to the bullish undertone. SHFE copper stocks dropped 11.46% from last Friday, while LME inventories have fallen 42% year-to-date to 157,175 tons, intensifying worries about tightening availability outside the U.S. The LME cash-to-three-month premium touched its highest since mid-October at $25 per ton. Meanwhile, the global refined copper market flipped back into deficit in September, posting a 51,000-ton shortfall, compared with a surplus in August, according to the ICSG. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping 6.67% to 8,229. Copper finds support at 1040.8, with further downside toward 1034.5, while resistance lies at 1053.8, and a breakout above that may lift prices toward 1060.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1034.5-1060.5.

* Copper dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to supply constraints.

* China’s top copper smelters will cut production by over 10% in 2026.

* Treatment and refining charges have been negative in 2025 due to tight copper supply and expanding Chinese smelting capacity.

Zinc

Zinc slipped 0.79% to 306, pressured by a stronger dollar, weaker risk appetite, and profit booking after the recent rally. Market sentiment was also influenced by mixed global fundamentals. The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, according to ILZSG, indicating a tightening balance. Weak U.S. retail sales and soft consumer sentiment reinforced expectations of a possible Fed rate cut in December, offering some support to prices. Supply-related developments in China added further interest. Several zinc mines across Central and Southwest China are set for maintenance shutdowns in December, reducing concentrate output by around 700 tons in metal content. SHFE zinc inventories fell 4.42% from last Friday, signaling improving demand or reduced supply inflows. However, upside remained limited as LME zinc stocks surged 47% in November to 49,925 tons, easing global supply concerns. Still, the elevated $135/ton cash-to-three-month premium reflects ongoing tightness in prompt material. China’s refined zinc trends added complexity: September output fell 4% MoM but surged over 20% YoY, while cumulative production for Jan–Sept rose nearly 9%. October output is expected to increase 4% MoM and 22% YoY, despite widespread smelter maintenance across key producing provinces. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 4.19% to 3,130. Zinc finds support at 304.9, with further downside possible toward 303.7, while resistance stands at 308.2, and a breakout could lift prices to 310.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 303.7-310.3.

* Zinc dropped pressured by a firmer dollar, lower risk appetite and as investors locked in profits from a rally.

* Global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August.

* A zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown in December, resulting in fewer production days.

Aluminium

Aluminium slipped 0.42% to 274.6, pressured by profit booking after earlier gains driven by tightening supply expectations in China. Persistent concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-mandated capacity limits continue to offer underlying support, along with improving demand prospects and restricted output growth. SHFE aluminium inventories fell 6.82% from last Friday, signaling tighter onshore availability. Global supply developments added mixed cues. The International Aluminium Institute reported 0.6% YoY growth in global primary aluminium output in October to 6.294 million tonnes. Japanese port inventories declined 3.6% MoM to 329,100 tons, reflecting stable demand. Meanwhile, supply disruptions provided support: Grundartangi’s potline in Iceland remains suspended due to equipment failure, Century Aluminium curtailed two-thirds of output at its Iceland smelter, and Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana refinery in Australia due to deteriorating bauxite grades. On the trade front, China’s aluminium flows remained robust. October imports rose 10.4% YoY to 350,000 tons, following a strong September jump, supported by healthy demand in transportation, construction, and packaging. In the first 10 months of 2025, imports climbed 6.1% YoY, while July exports rose to 542,000 tons, indicating active trade dynamics. Technically, the market is seeing long liquidation as open interest fell 0.36% to 3,358, with prices down ?1.15. Aluminium has support at 273.3, with further weakness toward 271.9, while resistance stands at 277, and a breakout could push prices to 279.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 271.9-279.3.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, constraining supply.

* China's Nov Alumina output falls 4.44% mom as environmental curbs cut northern operations

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 6.82% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric futures slipped marginally by 0.14% to 14,686, pressured by expectations of higher acreage this season due to favourable monsoon rains. Early indications suggest a 15–20% rise in turmeric acreage as farmers shift from less profitable crops. However, the downside remains limited as excessive rainfall has negatively impacted yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and parts of Nanded, where nearly 15% of the crop area has been damaged. Continuous rains in Erode have also triggered disease outbreaks, with high humidity making storage difficult. Stocks with farmers in Warangal are almost exhausted, with no new arrivals for the past two days, contributing to firmness in prices. Market activity remains strong, especially at the Duggirala market, where fresh crop arrivals are drawing solid buying interest. New-season turmeric continues to command a premium over old stock due to superior quality, with daily arrivals of 1,000–1,200 bags and nearly 50–55% of the new crop already traded. Meanwhile, the Himachal Pradesh government has initiated procurement to support natural farming, with registrations open until mid-June. Export demand remains supportive as turmeric exports during Apr–Sep 2025 rose 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes, while September shipments increased 7.59% year-on-year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest steady at 7,795. Prices are receiving support at 14,572, with further downside potential toward 14,458. On the upside, resistance is placed at 14,798, and a break above this may push prices toward 14,910.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14458-14910.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14963.85 Rupees gained by 0.18 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures edged higher by 0.39% to 21,795, supported by weather-related delays and slow sowing progress in key producing regions. In Gujarat, cumin sowing as of 1 December 2025 declined 7.74% to 1.94 lakh hectares, compared to 2.11 lakh hectares last year, as uneven rainfall has left fields unprepared. Arrivals at the Unjha market remain very low, and good-quality jeera is fetching higher prices. While demand from Gulf countries and China has improved slightly, it remains highly price-sensitive, with overall export interest still subdued due to sufficient global stocks and logistical challenges between India and the Middle East. Domestic supply remains comfortable as farmers hold nearly 20 lakh bags, though only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded this season, leaving a large carryover of 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat likely to produce 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, production outlook in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan remains tight due to weather disruptions. Export performance has been weak, with jeera exports during Apr–Sep 2025 falling 14.51% year-on-year, though September exports rose 2.20% annually and 22.93% month-on-month. Support is also emerging after the GST rate on jeera was reduced to 5%, aiding FMCG demand. In the Unjha spot market, prices closed at 21,417.5, up 0.49%. Technically, the market is seeing short covering as open interest dropped 5.04% to 3,051. Jeera has support at 21,560, with further weakness toward 21,310, while resistance lies at 22,000, and a breakout may push prices toward 22,190.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21310-22190.

* Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* As on 01 Dec 2025, in Gujarat, Jeera sowing dropped by 7.74 to 194,775 hectares compared to 211,121 hectares last year.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21417.5 Rupees gained by 0.49 percent.

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