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Price Performance

Highlights

• MCX Silver prices rose around 4.86% in a month while Silver$ prices rose over 10% in a month fueled by increased safe haven demand, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified after Israel struck Iran's embassy in Syria. 
• Additional support for the metal came from hopes for higher use in the solar industry, which currently takes up around a third of silver supply, since IKEA Foundation backed EV push with $100 million grant.
• U.S. job openings edged up in February, though labor market conditions are gradually easing in support of expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates by June.
• A pair of Federal Reserve policymakers said it would be "reasonable" to cut U.S. interest rates three times this year, even as stronger recent economic data has sown investor doubts about that outcome.
• Cleveland Fed Loretta Mester said that she doesn’t have enough information for a May meeting cut, yet foresees three rate cuts in 2024. Mester added the Fed’s challenge would be balancing the risks between inflation and employment.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the Fed need to see how long to keep rates at current levels. She supports three rate cuts, but added that it’s a projection, not a promise.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell responded to the latest inflation data, stating it aligned with their expectations and indicating that the Fed would not overreact to these figures. This suggests that the US central bank would remain in a wait-and-see approach toward future monetary policy decisions.
• In terms of the Federal Reserve's future interest rate movements, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders currently assign a 58% likelihood to the prospect of the US central bank reducing borrowing costs.

Price Performance

Global Silver Demand Forecasted to Rise to 1.2 Billion Ounces In 2024, Second-Highest Level Ever Recorded

Global Silver Demand: Forecasted to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, the second-highest level ever recorded, primarily driven by strong industrial offtake and a recovery in jewelry and silverware demand.

Silver Industrial Fabrication: Expected to post a 4 percent rise in 2024 to a record 690 million ounces, with the photovoltaics and automotive industries being key drivers of growth.

Jewelry Demand: Anticipated to record a 6 percent rise, led by India, following a pullback in 2022 due to post-COVID effects. Recovery in India and normalization of demand contribute to the increase.

Silver Physical Investment: Projected to decrease by 6 percent to a four-year low, driven by solid economic growth and gains in the U.S. stock market. However, a recovery is expected in India and Europe.

Total Global Silver Supply: Forecasted to grow by 3 percent in 2024 to an eight-year high of 1.02 billion ounces, driven by a recovery in mine output.

Silver Market Deficit: Predicted to remain in deficit for the fourth consecutive year, with this year's deficit expected to ease by 9 percent to 176 million ounces, still high by historical standards.

Silver Investment Outlook: Initial 2024 market sentiment is influenced by scaled-back expectations of U.S. rate cuts, affecting precious metal investment. However, silver's positive fundamentals are expected to encourage bargain hunting, with a potential recovery in mid-2024 when the Fed starts cutting rates.

SILVER SUPPLY & DEMAND

The Daily chart for Silver is showing some promising signs for traders. Right now, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 72.75. When it's this high, it suggests that the uptrend might keep going. 

Looking at the price itself, Silver is trading at 77036, which is above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. These averages act like safety nets for the price, indicating strong support levels. As long as Silver stays above these moving averages, it's likely to keep climbing. 

Another indicator to watch is the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). Right now, it's above the baseline and on the rise. This suggests that bullish momentum is building up. When the MACD crosses above the signal line, like it's doing now, it's a strong signal of a bullish trend. 

The Choppiness Index, sitting at 47.25, indicates that Silver is moving out of a range-bound trend into a more volatile zone. 

In simple terms, technically speaking, as long as Silver holds above 75500 levels, it looks set to test higher levels like 78500 (which we have seen in December 2023 and March 2024) and crossing above same could head towards 80000 levels.

The Daily chart for Silver$ is painting a picture of potential opportunity for traders. Right now, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) sits at 71.81. When it's up there, it suggests the uptrend might stick around. 

Looking at the price itself, Silver$ is at 26.25, which is above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. These averages are like safety nets for the price, signaling strong support levels. As long as Silver$ stays above these moving averages, there's potential for a bullish rally. 

Another thing to watch is the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). Right now, it's above the baseline and on the rise. This suggests that bullish momentum is building up. When the MACD crosses above the signal line, like it's doing now, it's a strong signal of a bullish trend. 

The Choppiness Index, sitting at 48.23, indicates that Silver$ is moving out of a range-bound trend into a more volatile zone.

In simple terms, technically speaking, as long as Silver$ holds above $25.40 levels, it looks set to test higher levels like $26.60 and crossing above the same could head towards $27 levels.

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