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Gold

Gold prices surged by 1.49% to settle at Rs.75,047 as the U.S. dollar rally paused and heightened geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict renewed safe-haven demand. Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve further supported the metal, although recent U.S. inflation data indicated slower progress towards the Fed's 2% target. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach to rate cuts, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins highlighted that a December cut remains uncertain, depending on upcoming data. Globally, gold demand in the third quarter remained steady at 1,176.5 metric tons, excluding OTC trading, as increased investment offset a 12% drop in jewelry consumption, according to the World Gold Council. Total demand, including OTC flows, hit a third-quarter record of 1,313 tons, driven by a 97% surge in institutional investments. ETFs recorded their first positive quarter since Q1 2022, with inflows of 95 tons, while bar and coin investments fell 9%. On the supply side, mine production rose by 6%, and recycling increased by 11%, providing ample supply to meet demand. Regionally, India’s gold demand slowed after strong festival sales, with premiums rising to $3 an ounce amid price volatility. In contrast, Chinese central bank purchases stalled for a sixth month, and discounts widened to $15-$17 per ounce. Japan and Singapore saw some buying, with premiums up to $2.20. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest dropped by 10.87% to 9,589 contracts while prices increased by Rs.1,101. Support is seen at Rs.74,535, and a break below could test Rs.74,020. Resistance lies at Rs.75,380, and a move above this level could push prices towards Rs.75,710.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 74020-75710.
* Gold prices soared as the U.S. dollar's surge stalled
* Heightened uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine conflict rekindled safe-haven demand.
* The U.S. central bank is widely expected to deliver a third rate cut in December

Silver

Silver prices surged by 2.37% to close at Rs.90,513, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions and a weaker U.S. Dollar. Safe-haven demand strengthened as investors anticipated that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's expansionary policies could fuel inflation, reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the resilience of the U.S. economy and dismissed urgency in cutting rates, Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that a December rate cut remains uncertain, underscoring data dependency. On the supply-demand front, the global silver deficit is expected to narrow by 4% to 182 million ounces in 2024, with supply growth of 2% slightly outpacing a 1% rise in demand. Industrial demand, including for electric vehicles and solar panels, is projected to reach a record high of 1.21 billion ounces, partially offset by a 16% decline in physical investment. Increased mine production, particularly in Mexico, Chile, and the U.S., is anticipated to raise supply by 1%, while recycling is expected to grow by 5% due to higher scrap availability. India’s silver imports are on track to nearly double in 2024, reflecting strong demand from solar panel manufacturers and industrial buyers, as well as investor optimism for better returns compared to gold. Imports in H1 2024 surged to 4,554 metric tons from just 560 tons a year earlier, supporting global prices. Technically, the silver market saw short covering, with open interest declining by -11.25% to 20,362 contracts. Prices gained Rs.2,092 during the session. Key support lies at Rs.89,390, with further downside potential to Rs.88,260. On the upside, resistance is at Rs.91,200, with a break above potentially driving prices toward Rs.91,880.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 88260-91880.
* Silver prices rose as geopolitical risks benefit the safe-haven amid a modest USD downtick.
* Bets for less aggressive Fed rate cuts and elevated US bond yields cap further gains.
* Fed’s Powell said that there’s no need to hurry into cutting interest rates amid a resilient economy, a strong job market, and inflation still above the 2% target.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 2.76% to settle at Rs.5836, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions as Russia launched its largest air strike in nearly three months, severely affecting Ukraine’s power infrastructure. However, lingering concerns over weak fuel demand in China and forecasts of a global oil surplus limited gains. The International Energy Agency projected a surplus of over 1 million barrels per day by 2025 despite OPEC+ production cuts, contributing to bearish sentiment last week when prices fell over 3%. China's refinery output dropped 4.6% year-on-year in October, while factory output growth also slowed, reflecting weaker economic activity in the world’s second-largest oil consumer. In the U.S., crude oil inventories rose by 2.089 million barrels for the week ending November 8, exceeding expectations of a 1.85 million rise. Conversely, crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub fell by 0.688 million barrels, and gasoline inventories dropped sharply by 4.407 million barrels against forecasts of a 1 million rise. Distillate stockpiles also declined by 1.394 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its global oil demand growth forecasts downward, citing slowing activity in China and North America. World oil demand is expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, 300,000 bpd below prior estimates. Meanwhile, U.S. oil production is forecasted to reach 13.22 million bpd this year, slightly lower than earlier projections. Technically, crude oil is under short covering, with open interest falling by 3.65% to 10,362 contracts while prices gained Rs.157. Support is seen at Rs.5705, with a break below testing Rs.5574. Resistance is likely at Rs.5911, with potential to reach Rs.5986 on further strength.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5574-5986.
* Crude oil surged following news of a production halt at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield
* Russia launched its biggest air strike in nearly three months, heavily impacting Ukraine’s power infrastructure.
* However, concerns over weak fuel demand in China and projections of a global oil surplus kept prices under pressure.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices surged by 4.34% to close at Rs.247.8, fueled by expectations of higher demand amid colder weather and declining production. As temperatures drop, gas consumption typically increases, adding upward pressure to prices. Additionally, U.S. LNG exports have risen, with daily gas flows to export plants reaching a 10-month high of 13.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in early November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. This reflects robust international demand for U.S. natural gas. On the supply side, natural gas production in the Lower 48 states decreased to 100.3 bcfd in November from 101.3 bcfd in October. Recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a storage build of 42 billion cubic feet for the week ending November 8, leaving inventories at 3.974 trillion cubic feet, 6.1% above the seasonal average and 228 billion cubic feet higher than the five-year average. However, this was the smallest storage addition in nine weeks, signaling tightening supply conditions. Looking ahead, the EIA projects U.S. dry gas production to ease to 103.3 bcfd in 2024 from 103.8 bcfd in 2023, driven by reduced drilling activity following record-low spot prices earlier this year. Simultaneously, domestic gas consumption is expected to rise to a record 90.0 bcfd in 2024, supported by heating demand and industrial use. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest falling by -3.41% to settle at 15,306 contracts. Prices increased by Rs.10.3 during the session. Support is at Rs.241.9, with a break below potentially testing Rs.236.1, while resistance is seen at Rs.251.1, with further upside likely toward Rs.254.5 if breached. Seasonal demand and production trends will continue to drive market sentiment.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 236.1-254.5.
* Natural gas rose driven by expectations of increased demand as colder weather sets in and a dip in production.
* US LNG export activity has picked up, with daily gas flows to export plants rising to a 10-month high last Friday.
* Natural gas exports to the seven major LNG export plants average 13.3 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October.

Copper

Copper prices rose by 1.21% to settle at Rs.804.8 as markets reassessed the impact of China’s economic support measures on demand. New infrastructure investments in China increased by 4.3% in the first 10 months of the year, signaling that Beijing’s $1.4 trillion debt package and monetary easing efforts are beginning to lift economic activity. However, supply concerns remain, as Chinese smelters face severe shortages of raw materials, leading to potential production cuts and extended maintenance in 2024. Treatment charges for copper concentrate have hit historic lows due to intense competition driven by global mine disruptions and expanded smelter capacities. The global refined copper market recorded a 54,000 metric ton surplus in August, down from 73,000 metric tons in July, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). For the first eight months of 2024, the market showed a 535,000 metric ton surplus, compared to just 75,000 metric tons in the same period a year earlier. Refined copper output in August reached 2.32 million metric tons, exceeding consumption of 2.27 million metric tons. China’s copper imports increased in October by 1.1% year-on-year to 506,000 metric tons, reflecting improved seasonal demand and an optimistic consumption outlook. Imports of copper concentrate for the first 10 months of 2024 rose 3.3% year-on-year to 23.36 million metric tons. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping by 5.78% to 7,135 contracts while prices gained Rs.9.65. Copper finds support at Rs.797.8, with a potential test of Rs.790.8 on further declines. Resistance is seen at ?808.6, with a break above targeting ?812.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 790.8-812.4.
* Copper rose as markets reassessed the impact of China’s economic support on demand.
* New infrastructure investment in China rose by 4.3% in the first 10 months of the year.
* Beijing passed a $1.4 trillion debt package for local governments to swap out hidden debt and lower their financing costs to stimulate the economy.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.33% to close at Rs.277.65, driven by concerns over global supply disruptions following China's announcement to cancel export tax rebates. In response, Chinese zinc producers are expediting the delivery of 30,000-40,000 metric tons of refined zinc to Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses, potentially increasing zinc stocks in the ShFE system to 56,524-66,524 tons. Current ShFE-monitored warehouse stocks nearly doubled over the past week with deliveries of 24,039 tons, bringing the total to 50,563 tons. China's domestic zinc inventories rose, with the total stock in seven regions reaching 127,400 metric tons, reflecting a weekly increase of 7,400 metric tons. Despite this, Shanghai's inventory declined significantly due to fewer deliveries and better spot transactions amid falling zinc prices. The global zinc market deficit widened to 66,300 metric tons in August, up from 51,000 tons in July, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). However, the global market maintained a surplus of 127,000 tons for the first eight months of 2024, significantly lower than the 418,000 tons surplus during the same period in 2023. China's refined zinc production in September rose by over 2% month-on-month but fell by more than 8% year-on-year. Production is expected to grow marginally in October, led by increased output from post-maintenance smelters in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Hunan, partially offset by reductions in Gansu due to routine maintenance. Technically, the zinc market witnessed short covering, with open interest falling by -0.24% to 2,474 contracts. Prices gained Rs.0.9 during the session. Immediate support lies at Rs.275.3, with further downside to Rs.272.9, while resistance is at Rs.279.8, with a potential test of Rs.281.9 on a breakout. Production trends and inventory shifts remain critical to price dynamics.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 272.9-281.9.
* Zinc gains after China announced it will cancel export tax rebates, sparking concerns about global supply disruptions.
* Chinese zinc producers are rushing to send 30,000 to 40,000 metric tons of refined zinc to warehouses registered with the ShFE.
* China's August zinc consumption shrank by 3% to 581,000 tonnes – WBMS

Aluminium

Aluminium prices fell by 0.33% to settle at Rs.241.85 as profit booking weighed on the market following news of China’s removal of export tax rebates for aluminium, effective December 1. This policy change aims to reduce overseas shipments and support the domestic market. China's first round of fiscal measures, including a 6 trillion yuan incremental debt financing plan, fell short of expectations, but it could improve corporate balance sheets and bolster employment and income growth. Aluminium inventories at major Japanese ports dropped to 311,400 metric tons by the end of October, a 0.5% decline from September. In China, Guangdong and Wuxi reported aluminium ingot inventory reductions of 3,100 tons and 3,400 tons, respectively, on November 15. As of November 14, social inventory for domestically produced electrolytic aluminium stood at 565,000 tons, with a circulating inventory of 439,000 tons. China’s unwrought aluminium and products exports grew by 17% year-on-year to 5.5 million tons during the first 10 months of 2024. October exports reached 577,000 tons, a 2.7% month-on-month rise and a 31% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, primary aluminium output rose by 1.6% year-on-year to 3.72 million metric tons in October, supported by firm demand and higher prices. Total output for the first 10 months reached 36.39 million tons, a 4.3% increase over the previous year. Technically, aluminium is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 3.3% to 2,504 contracts while prices dropped Rs.0.8. Support is at Rs.238.5, with a break below testing Rs.235.2. Resistance lies at Rs.245.3, and a move above could lead to Rs.248.8. The market reflects mixed dynamics, including policy shifts, inventory trends, and robust Chinese production.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 235.2-248.8.
* Aluminium dropped on profit booking as the market digested news about China’s scrapping of export rebates.
* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 311,400 metric tons by the end of October, down about 0.5% from the previous month.
* Shanghai warehouse aluminium stocks down 13.3%

Cotton Candy

Cotton Candy prices fell by 0.97% to settle at Rs.54,370, weighed down by weak yarn market demand and payment constraints. India's cotton production for 2024/25 is projected to decline by 7.4% to 30.2 million bales due to reduced acreage and crop damage caused by excessive rainfall and pests. The USDA also revised India's production forecast lower to 30.72 million bales, reducing ending stocks to 12.38 million bales. Meanwhile, global production estimates were raised by over 200,000 bales, with increases in China, Brazil, and Argentina offsetting declines in the U.S. and Spain. India's cotton acreage has dropped by 9% to 11.29 million hectares this year, as farmers in Gujarat shifted to groundnuts for better returns. Consequently, cotton imports are expected to rise to 2.5 million bales from 1.75 million last year, while exports are likely to fall to 1.8 million bales from 2.85 million. Domestic demand is projected to remain steady at 31.3 million bales. Globally, the U.S. reduced its 2024/25 cotton production estimate by 300,000 bales to 14.2 million due to hurricane damage, and exports were lowered by 300,000 bales to 11.5 million. However, world ending stocks were slightly reduced to 76.3 million bales, reflecting weaker import demand, especially from China. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation as open interest dropped by 1.86% to 158 contracts, with prices declining by Rs.530. Support is seen at Rs.54,080, and a break below could test Rs.53,800. Resistance is likely at Rs.54,570, with potential upside testing Rs.54,780. Market sentiment remains pressured by reduced production, export constraints, and weak downstream demand.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 53800-54780.
* Cotton settled down as yarn markets face weak demand and payment constraints.
* India's cotton production estimated to drop to 7-year low in 2024-25
* USDA has lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25814.95 Rupees dropped by -0.41 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices surged by 2.78% to close at Rs.13,914, supported by short covering amid concerns over potential crop damage due to heavy rains. Earlier price pressure stemmed from higher arrivals and subdued demand, but expectations of reduced supply have limited the downside. Reports suggest that losses from adverse weather could be greater than initially estimated, even as light rains in Vidarbha (20 mm) and Telangana (18 mm) have recently aided crop growth. The expected turmeric acreage for the upcoming season is estimated to rise by 30-35% compared to last year, with sowing projected at 3.75-4 lakh hectares versus 3-3.25 lakh hectares last year. This is expected to result in a crop of 70-75 lakh bags for 2025, a significant increase from the 2024 crop estimate of 45-50 lakh bags. However, outstanding stock levels are projected to be zero, potentially leaving availability lower than consumption for 2025. On the trade front, turmeric exports during April-September 2024 rose marginally by 0.96% to 92,911 tonnes compared to 92,025 tonnes during the same period in 2023. September exports rose significantly year-on-year by 68.69%, though monthly figures dipped by 4.06% compared to August. Imports during the same period jumped 184.73% to 15,742 tonnes, driven by higher domestic prices and demand. Technically, turmeric saw fresh buying with open interest rising by 0.05% to settle at 10,875 contracts, while prices gained Rs.376. Immediate support is at Rs.13,622, with further downside potential to Rs.13,330. Resistance is seen at Rs.14,142, and a breakout above could push prices toward Rs.14,370. Market dynamics will likely be influenced by weather conditions, export demand, and acreage data in the coming weeks.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13330-14370.
* Turmeric gains on short covering after prices dropped due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.
* The expected acreage for the upcoming season is estimated to be 30-35% higher than last year.
* Recent weather conditions, which include dry weather followed by light rains, are benefiting crop growth.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13802.55 Rupees gained by 1.12 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices closed marginally lower by 0.02% at Rs.25,005 as arrivals increased, with approximately 15,000 bags arriving daily in Unjha. Farmers are estimated to still hold about 35% of the current season's stock, while carryover stocks are projected to be around 20 lakh bags at the start of the new season. However, the cumin market remains supported by expectations of improved export demand post-Diwali, with exports likely to rise in November and December. India continues to dominate the global cumin market, offering the lowest prices at $3,050 per tonne, significantly cheaper than Chinese cumin, which is $200-$250 higher. This price advantage is expected to attract significant buying interest from countries including China. The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) reported that cumin exports during July-September surged by 128% year-on-year to 52,022 metric tonnes, largely driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Exports for April-September 2024 rose 70% to 119,249 tonnes compared to the same period in 2023. On the supply side, cumin production is estimated to decline by 10%, with Rajasthan witnessing a 10-15% drop in cultivation. Additionally, strong domestic and international demand, particularly from Europe, is expected to keep the market supported during the festive season. Technically, jeera is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 2.02% to 2,124 contracts, while prices declined by Rs.5. Support is seen at Rs.24,780, with a break below likely to test Rs.24,540. Resistance is expected at Rs.25,220, and a move above could push prices to Rs.25,420. While short-term fluctuations are influenced by arrivals, long-term prospects remain robust due to strong export demand and reduced production.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24540-25420.
* Jeera prices settled flat as arrival has increased.
* There is a possibility of 25 percent reduction in cumin sowing in Gujarat
* Carryover stock of 20 lakh bags of cumin is estimated in the new season
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25267.95 Rupees gained by 0.17 percent.

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