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Gold

Gold edged higher by 1.09% to settle at 153,434, as investors remained cautious while assessing the fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Although a temporary truce is in place, unresolved disputes and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz are keeping uncertainty elevated. A slightly weaker dollar also supported prices, helping the metal hover near its highest level since mid-March. On the macro front, the tone remains mixed but broadly supportive. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting indicated that some policymakers are still concerned about persistent inflation, especially with rising energy prices adding pressure. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee flagged the timing of the oil shock as problematic, while strong U.S. labor data—with nonfarm payrolls rising by 178,000 and unemployment at 4.3%—has led markets to largely rule out rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, central bank demand remains firm, with China extending its gold-buying streak for the 17th consecutive month, reflecting sustained long-term confidence in the metal. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, supported by a 1.1% rise in open interest to 7,385, alongside a price gain of  Rs.1,658. Immediate support is seen at 151,525, with a break below opening the door to 149,620. On the upside, resistance is placed at 154,455, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 155,480.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149620-155480.

* Gold edged higher as investors weighed the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire amid escalating Middle East conflict

* Fed officials favoured a two-sided framing of future rate decisions, highlighting that additional increases could be warranted if inflation persists.

* Data showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 jobs in March, the most since December 2024.

Silver

Silver gained 1.6% to settle at 243,768, supported by rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire. A weaker dollar further boosted prices, as markets questioned whether the truce would hold. With the Strait of Hormuz still shut and key issues unresolved, sentiment turned cautious after fresh threats of escalation and reports of disrupted oil tanker movement following regional attacks. On the macro side, the backdrop remains mixed. U.S. economic growth slowed sharply, with GDP for Q4 2025 revised down to 0.5%, highlighting weakening momentum compared to the previous quarter. At the same time, inflation remains sticky, with the core PCE index rising 0.4% in February, maintaining a 10-month high. Labor market data, however, continues to show resilience, with private employers adding an average of 26,000 jobs per week in recent weeks. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults declined by 2.4% to 27,065 tonnes, indicating tightening physical availability. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest slipping 0.44% to 5,704 while prices climbed by  Rs.3,850. Immediate support is placed at 237,885, with a break below potentially dragging prices to 232,005. On the upside, resistance is seen at 246,895, and a sustained move above this level could push silver toward 250,025.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 232005-250025.

* Silver gains reflecting investor concerns over the fragile US-Iran ceasefire and escalating Middle East conflict.

* Investor optimism over the US–Iran ceasefire began to fade as concerns about the deal’s durability resurfaced.

* US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.5% in the final quarter of 2025, revised down further from 0.7% in the second estimate.

Crude oil

Crude oil edged higher by 0.81% to settle at 8,933, as renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon cast fresh doubt over the already fragile Middle East ceasefire. Market sentiment remained tense, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely restricted and reports suggesting tanker traffic has been disrupted. Since the strait handles nearly 20% of global oil and gas flows, even partial blockages continue to keep supply concerns elevated. On the fundamentals side, global outlooks are becoming more nuanced. Goldman Sachs has slightly lowered its near-term price forecasts following the temporary ceasefire, but still sees upside risks if disruptions persist. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that domestic crude production could gradually decline over the long term, despite peaking around current levels. Inventory data offered a mixed picture—U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.1 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined, pointing to steady fuel demand. Elsewhere, Russia’s production remained broadly stable, while Kazakhstan reported a recovery in output. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest marginally down by 0.01% to 8,361, alongside a  Rs.72 price gain. Immediate support is seen at 8,675, with a break below potentially dragging prices toward 8,416. On the upside, resistance is placed at 9,384, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 9,834.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8416-9834.

* Crude oil gained as renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon raised doubts about the durability of a fragile Middle East ceasefire.

* Goldman Sachs trimmed its second-quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively.

* US crude output to fall next decade on sub – $70 Brent price forecast, EIA says

Natural gas

Natural gas slipped by 1.45% to settle at 250.6, weighed down by a larger-than-expected storage build and continued mild weather forecasts. The EIA reported a 50 Bcf injection for the week ended April 3, slightly above market expectations and well above the five-year average build of 13 Bcf. This reinforced the view of comfortable supply conditions at the start of the injection season. Weather remains a key drag, with forecasts pointing to above-normal temperatures through at least April 24, which is likely to keep heating demand subdued in the near term. On the geopolitical front, markets are keeping an eye on upcoming talks between U.S. and Iranian officials, especially after recent tensions in the Middle East threatened a fragile ceasefire. However, U.S. gas prices have remained relatively insulated from global disruptions, thanks to strong domestic production and LNG export facilities already operating near capacity. Inventory levels continue to reflect this supply strength, with total storage at 1.911 trillion cubic feet—around 4.9% higher than last year and 4.8% above the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA expects production to rise further in the coming years, even as domestic demand sees a slight dip. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.32% to 40,164 while prices declined by  Rs.3.7. Immediate support is seen at 247.4, with resistance at 255.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 244.1-260.9.

* Natural gas dropped pressured by a larger-than-expected storage build last week and mild weather forecasts.

* The EIA reported a 50 Bcf injection into storage for the week ended April 3, above market expectations of a 46 Bcf build.

* The increase compares with a 53 Bcf injection in the same week last year and a five-year average build of 13 Bcf.

Copper

Copper edged higher by 0.44% to settle at 1,192.95, supported by a softer dollar, which slipped below the 99 mark to a two-week low. Market sentiment remained cautious, however, as traders closely tracked developments in the Middle East, where a fragile ceasefire continues to hang in the balance ahead of upcoming peace talks. On the fundamentals side, the picture remains mixed. Global inventories have surged, with combined stocks across LME and Comex crossing 900,000 tons—roughly double levels seen at the start of the year—indicating ample supply. This is reflected in the widening discount for cash copper contracts on the LME, signaling no immediate shortage. At the same time, Chinese smelters are expected to maintain or even increase output in 2026, adding further supply pressure. However, some supportive cues are emerging: Chile’s production fell 4.8% year-on-year, while SHFE inventories have dropped over 30% since mid-March, hinting at improving demand ahead of China’s peak consumption season. From a broader outlook perspective, Goldman Sachs expects the copper market to shift into a larger surplus in 2026, while Citi has turned more cautious, projecting lower prices in the near term amid macro uncertainty. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.38% to 9,212 alongside a  Rs.5.2 price gain. Immediate support is seen at 1,184.5, while resistance stands at 1,197.8. A breakout above this level could push prices toward 1,202.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1175.9-1202.5.

* Copper gains as dollar index pared early gains, slipping below 99 to its weakest level in more than two weeks..

* Copper are stocks in warehouses registered with the LME and Comex above 900,000 tons, double the level since the start of the year.

* Climbing inventories have created a large discount for the cash contracts over the three-month forward on the LME.

Zinc

Zinc prices moved higher by 0.72% to settle at 330.85, supported by improving industrial signals and near-term supply tightness. China’s factory activity returning to expansion in March helped lift demand expectations, while declining inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and ongoing mine disruptions added further support to prices. That said, gains remained capped as broader market sentiment stayed cautious. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the ceasefire continue to cloud the global demand outlook for industrial metals. At the same time, China’s foreign exchange reserves saw a sharp decline, and the central bank’s move to withdraw liquidity signals a more cautious policy stance, even as it maintains an overall accommodative approach. On the supply side, the outlook remains relatively balanced. While disruptions and low stockpiles are offering short-term support, the restart of key mines and rising production—such as Japan’s planned output increase—are expected to keep the market in a modest surplus. Global data also shows the zinc market shifting into surplus in January, although the excess is smaller compared to last year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising sharply by 13.1% to 2,011 alongside a  Rs.2.35 price gain. Immediate support is seen at 328.4, while resistance is placed at 332.4. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward 334.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 326-334.

* Zinc gains amid improving industrial signals and short-term supply tightness.

* China’s factory activity returned to expansion in March, lifting demand expectations.

* Foreign exchange reserves held and published by the People's Bank of China fell by $85.7 billion from the previous month.

Aluminium

Aluminium slipped slightly by 0.17% to settle at 354.25, as lingering doubts over the durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire weighed on sentiment and raised concerns about global growth and demand for industrial metals. Despite this, supply-side disruptions in the Middle East continue to influence pricing, particularly with shipments affected and key smelter operations facing extended downtime. The physical market reflects a mixed picture. The premium for LME cash aluminium has surged to multi-year highs, indicating tight near-term availability, especially after disruptions in the UAE. However, this tightness is being offset by rising inventories in China, where stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have climbed to a six-year high after consistent weekly increases. At the same time, global output remains firm, with production rising modestly and China continuing to increase its aluminium output, supported by better margins. On the demand side, caution persists as buyers limit purchases amid price volatility and macro uncertainty. Import data from China also points to softer demand, with inbound shipments declining year-on-year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping 2.71% to 3,091 while prices eased by  Rs.0.6. Immediate support is seen at 353.3, with a break below potentially leading to 352.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at 355.4, and a move above this level could push prices toward 356.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 352.3-356.5.

* Aluminium dropped as doubts about whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire would hold reinforced concerns about global growth and demand.

* The premium for the LME cash contract over the three-month forward climbed above $70 a ton, the highest since 2007.

* The Middle East produced nearly seven million metric tons of primary aluminium last year or 9% of global supply estimated at around 75 million tons this year.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 1.78% to settle at  Rs.16,586, as traders and stockists booked profits after the recent rally. The fall comes despite continued tight arrivals in key mandis, where farmers are still holding back supplies in anticipation of better prices. This cautious selling is keeping the overall market tone relatively firm. On the fundamentals side, crop conditions remain mixed. Unseasonal rains and disease pressure in major producing states like Maharashtra and Telangana have impacted yields, with around 15% crop damage reported in some areas. While overall production is estimated higher at around 90 lakh bags compared to last season, the increase is limited due to lower carry-forward stocks and localized yield losses. Quality concerns such as rhizome rot and aflatoxin risks are also affecting supply in certain regions. Demand remains supportive, with steady domestic consumption and consistent export interest, particularly from Europe and the U.S. Although monthly export data shows some decline, cumulative shipments remain stable, while imports have dropped sharply, indicating reduced dependence on overseas supply. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining alongside prices. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.16,490, with further downside towards  Rs.16,396. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.16,738, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.16,892.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16396-16892.

* Turmeric dropped as traders and stockists are liquidating long positions after prices recently amid lower-than-normal arrivals.

* Short-term global demand momentum has softened, causing a temporary pile-up of domestic spice stocks.

* High prices prompted farmers to release their stored inventories before the peak season ends.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16274.15 Rupees gained by 1.61 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 1.34% to settle at  Rs.22,100, pressured by the arrival of the new crop in key mandis and comfortable supply conditions. Weak export demand, particularly from China, has further weighed on sentiment, leading to a build-up of domestic stocks. Farmers are actively selling in local markets to take advantage of prevailing prices, adding to near-term pressure. However, the downside appears limited due to emerging weather risks. Rising temperature alerts in North Gujarat could impact the late-sown crop, potentially reducing seed weight and overall yields. Production is already expected to decline by around 5% this year, with Gujarat witnessing a sharp drop due to lower acreage and weaker yields. In contrast, Rajasthan is likely to see higher output, which may partly offset supply concerns. Demand remains mixed, with strong interest for premium-quality cumin, while lower grades continue to fluctuate based on arrivals. Export performance remains weak, with shipments declining significantly, reflecting subdued global demand and ongoing logistical challenges. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling alongside prices. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.21,950, with further downside towards  Rs.21,790. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.22,320, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.22,530.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21790-22530.

* Jeera dropped as increasing supplies of fresh cumin crops in Unjha and Rajasthan mandis are weighing down prices.

* Global buying interest, particularly from China, remains weak, leading to a domestic stock build-up.

* Farmers are rushing to liquidate stocks in local markets to capitalize on current rates.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22420.45 Rupees dropped by -0.11 percent.

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