Rupee to see muted reaction to US inflation flare-up
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The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Friday, despite a pick-up in U.S. inflation which spurred a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and further reduced the likelihood of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.30-83.32 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its close of 82.3150 in the previous session.
The losses in other Asian currencies were moderate, with most down just about 0.1%.
I "would have thought that Asia would be under a lot of stress. However, that has not happened, making it a dull opening," a currency trader at a bank said.
The dollar/rupee pair "is now in a phase" where dips to 83.20-83.25 will find buyers, while 83.40 will bring in sellers, he said.
The 10-year U.S. yield rose to the highest since November and the 2-year yield topped 5% on Thursday after data showed that a measure of inflation rose more than expected.
The core PCE rose by 3.7% in the first quarter, above expectations of a 3.4% increase.
The data "implies upside risks to" the monthly core PCE deflator and makes a near-term Fed rate cut all the more less likely, ING Bank.
The March core PCE index, due later in the day, is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month.
"Assuming no revisions in January and February, this quarterly print implies a monthly core PCE inflation rate for March of 0.48%, well above our prior expectations," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
The odds of a Fed rate cut in July is down to 1-in-3 and investors are pricing in just 35 basis points of total cuts this year.
Meanwhile, U.S. GDP increased at a 1.6% annualized rate last quarter, below expectations.
It was higher inflation that caught the market's eye, rather than weaker growth, ING Bank said.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.38; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.25 paisa
** Dollar index little changed at 105.60
** Brent crude futures up 0.3% at $89.3 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.7%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $507.5 million worth of Indian shares on April 24
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $384.1 million worth of Indian bonds on April 24
