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Rupee to rely on central bank support amid higher US yields, outflows
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The Indian rupee is expected to hold near all-time lows on Tuesday amid the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hitting the highest in two months and relentless equity outflows.
The Reserve Bank of India, however, is expected to not let the rupee slip past the psychologically important 84 handle.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open largely unchanged from 83.9775 in the previous session and just shy of the 83.9850 lifetime low hit last month.
The U.S. Treasury 10-year yield topped 4% for the first time in more than two months on Monday. The dollar index was holding just below 102.50, up more than 2% from recent lows.
The recaliberation in expectations regarding the pace at which the Federal Reserve will bring down borrowing costs following the blowout U.S. jobs report have pushed U.S. yields higher and boosted the dollar. U.S. equities dropped 1% on Monday, pegged back by the higher U.S. yields.
"Middle East tensions too remain supportive of the dollar and U.S. equities have lost the momentum with the quantum of Fed rate cuts now in question," Srinivas Puni, managing director at forex advisory firm at QuantArt Market Solutions, said.
On USD/INR, he said that the recent range remains intact for now.
The expectation that the rupee will continue to be in a narrow range despite the ongoing changes in the Fed rate outlook, large equity outflows from Indian equities and oil worries is based on the assumption that the RBI will keep defending the 84 level.
The RBI on Monday asked state-run and private lenders to refrain from betting heavily against the rupee in an effort to support the currency, a repeat of what they had done in August.
The RBI's support has meant that the rupee has not been impacted by the more than $5 billion of equity outflows in just five sessions this month.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 84.10; onshore one-month forward premium at 12 paise
** Dollar index at 102.42
** Brent crude futures 1.9% at $79.4 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $1,148.7 mln worth of Indian shares on Oct. 4
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $7.7 mln worth of Indian bonds on Oct. 4
