Rupee tipped to drift lower as buoyant dollar pressures Asia FX
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The Indian rupee is likely to open slightly lower on Monday as expectations surrounding the incoming Trump administration's policies keep the dollar well-bid despite heightened hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee would open at 84.69-84.70 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its close of 84.6875 in the previous session.
The odds of a 25-basis point rate at the Fed's Dec. 17-18 meeting have risen -- to 83% from 66% -- after payrolls data showed job growth was roughly in line with expectations in November, while the unemployment rate nudged higher to 4.2%.
The heightened odds though, are unlikely to help regional currencies substantially amid the lingering prospect of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump raising trade tariffs.
"We doubt Asian FX can strengthen further from here, especially in H1 2025, given the likelihood that Trump 2.0 will be fast and furious in tariff implementation, making it somewhat attractive to put on some hedges against Asian FX weakness," MUFG Bank said in a note.
The dollar index was at 106.05 after rising 0.5% on Friday, while U.S. bond yields dipped after the labour market data.
Asian currencies were mostly lower, with the Korean won down 1% and leading losses.
A reversal in portfolio outflows from India may offer the rupee some breathing room though, with foreign investors turning net buyers of stock and bonds worth over $4 billion in December so far after two months of sustained outflows.
The rupee's pace of decline "could moderate heading into year-end," but the bias continues to be towards gradual deprecation below 85, a trader at a state-run bank said.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 84.84; onshore one-month forward premium at 14 paisa
** Dollar index higher at 106.02
** Brent crude futures up 0.5% at $71.5 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.15%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $1,119.9 mln worth of Indian shares on Dec. 5
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $65.5 mln worth of Indian bonds on Dec. 5
