Rupee set to open higher after Diwali break; focus on US-India trade deal news flow
Cues from the non-deliverable forward market suggest that the Indian rupee will open higher on Thursday, with traders watching for developments on a potential U.S.-India trade deal.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 87.80-87.85 range versus the U.S. dollar, having settled at 87.9275 on Monday.
Indian foreign-exchange and money markets were shut the last two days for Diwali holidays.
India and the U.S. are nearing a long-delayed trade pact that would lower U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to around 15%–16% from 50%, Mint reported, citing people familiar with the talks — a development that may support the rupee at the open.
The opening advance on rupee will have to contend with likely hedging interest from corporates. Importers have been fairly active following the rupee’s rally sparked by the central bank’s heavy intervention.
The Reserve Bank of India appears intent on preventing the currency from weakening past 88 per U.S. dollar, a banker said, while dips in USD/INR continue to attract hedging interest from importers.
The pair has struggled to break below the 87.70–87.75 range in each of the last three sessions.
"The price action to me suggests that a wall of importer bids are sitting through at the sub-87.80 level,” said a currency trader at a private bank.
"The RBI seems to be drawing a soft line near 88 on one hand, and importers chasing hedges on the other. The question is what fades first — the flow or the intervention.
ASIAN CUES
Asian currencies were mostly weaker on Thursday, while the dollar index edged higher and oil prices rose — all factors unsupportive of the rupee. A positive, however, was the drop in bullion prices, with gold sliding nearly 6% over Tuesday and Wednesday.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 87.96; onshore one-month forward premium at 13.25 paise
** Dollar index up at 99.05
** Brent crude futures up 2.4% at $64.1 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.96%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $100.4mln worth of Indian shares on October 21
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $40.6mln worth of Indian bonds on October 21
