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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

* Rupee ended on a negative note on Monday amid dollar demand from importers. Additionally, rupee closed weaker on firm dollar and rise in US treasury yields following strong non-farm payrolls data from US

* Rupee is likely to appreciate today amid expectation of further correction in dollar and US treasury yields. Yields are moving south as investors focuses on FOMC meeting minutes and US CPI data for insights into US rate cut timeline. Additionally, rise in risk appetite in the domestic markets and softening of crude oil prices will aid rupee. USDINR April likely to face the resistance near 83.36 level (10-Day EMA) and slip towards immediate support of 83.24 level (20-day EMA), a sustain break below 83.24 level pair may slip further towards 83.12 level (89-Day EMA).

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro slipped marginally by 0.02% yesterday amid pessimistic domestic market sentiments and ahead of ECB monetary policy. For today, EURUSD is likely to rise towards 1.0900 level as long as it stays above 1.0810 level (200-Day EMA) amid weakness in dollar. Further, investors will keep an close eye on ECB monetary policy where central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at record high levels. Meanwhile, more focus will be on statements from ECB to get hint on monetary policy path, market expects first rate cut to be delivered in June. EURINR April may rise towards 90.70 level as long as it trades above 90.10 level (100-Day EMA)

* Pound is expected to rise further towards 1.2715 level, which is also 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2894-1.2540 range amid weakness in dollar and optimistic global market sentiments. GBPINR April is likely to rise towards 105.65 level (200-Day EMA) as long as it holds the support near 104.90 (100-Day EMA). A sustain close above 105.65 level would open doors for 105.85 level

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