Rupee helped by soft US inflation data, hawkish Fed to weigh
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The Indian rupee will be supported on Thursday by the lower-than-expected U.S. inflation print, while projections that the Federal Reserve will cut rates only once this year are expected to weigh.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.52-83.55 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its previous close at 83.5450.
"The relief on the U.S. inflation is not leading to much (for the rupee), which ordinarily means that (the dollar/rupee pair) wants to push higher," a currency trader at a bank said.
"And that push higher has to deal with the RBI."
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday intervened in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) and the local spot markets to keep local currency from dipping to an all-time low.
U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index slumped after U.S. consumer prices was unchanged in May, following a 0.3% month-on-month increase in April, and compared with a 0.1% increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
The drop in the yields and the dollar was partly unwound after the dot plot indicated that the Fed may cut rates just once this year, compared with three rate cuts policymakers had projected in March.
Further, the Fed's long-run estimate for policy rose from 2.5625% to 2.75%.
The dot plot delivered a hawkish surprise with a median projection of one cut in 2024 instead of the two that the consensus had expected, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
The market probability of a September Fed rate cut climbed to more than 80% following the inflation report, only to drop back to near 60% later.
The dollar index, having hit a low of 104.25, recovered. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 7 basis points off the lows.
KEY INDICATORS:** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.60; onshore one-month forward premium at 7 paise
** Dollar index up at 104.76** Brent crude futures down 0.4% at $82.3 per barrel** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.32%** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $6.8mln worth of Indian shares on June 11
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $299.2mln worth of Indian bonds on June 11
