Rupee edges lower as decline in Asian peers counters upward bias
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The Indian rupee was little changed on Thursday as weakness in Asian currencies offset a broadly positive bias on the rupee amid expectations of portfolio inflows and the Reserve Bank of India's stern defence of the currency.
The rupee was at 83.4925 against the U.S. dollar as of 10:25 a.m. IST, compared with its previous close at 83.4550.
The dollar index was at 105.3, while most Asian currencies declined, with the Indonesian rupiah falling to a four-year low and the Chinese yuan slightly lower at 7.28, its weakest level since November 2023.
Weakness in the yuan may keep some pressure on the rupee during the day but the broad bias is tilted higher, a foreign exchange trader at a foreign bank said.
Traders expect inflows into India's sovereign bonds on account of India's inclusion in the JPMorgan emerging market debt index later this month to support gains in the rupee alongside flows into local equities.
Foreign investors bought local stocks worth about $948 million on a net basis on Wednesday, according to provisional exchange data.
Foreign inflows into Indian bonds are expected to hit a decade-high of $2 billion around June 28 when they will be included in a widely tracked JPMorgan index.
"While external factors have capped further gains, the outlook for the rupee remains stable," said Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex.
Investors will now keep an eye on U.S. jobless claims data which may offer cues on the future path of the Federal Reserve's policy rates.
Interest rate futures are currently pricing in nearly a 64% chance of a rate cut in September, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.
