Rupee eyes recovery in Asia FX, Fed comments post US inflation
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The Indian rupee will weigh the pause in the U.S. dollar's rally on Thursday, while digesting comments from Federal Reserve officials following the higher-than-expected U.S. inflation print.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open nearly unchanged from 83.03 in the previous session. The dollar index pulled back slightly while most Asian currencies were a tad higher. The rupee made an intraday low of 83.1150 on Wednesday.
With the run higher on the dollar taking a bit of a breather and "yesterday's session making it clear-cut" that up moves on USD/INR "are being sold into", it will be a quiet session around the 83 level, a FX trader at a bank said.
There is "little to think of" the way USD/INR is right now in that "it is safe" to sell 15-20 paisa rallies, he said.
FED COMMENTS
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday the Fed's path toward cutting will still be on track despite price increases running a bit hotter-than-expected over the next few months, and the central bank should be wary of waiting too long before it cuts interest rates.
The comments came a day after U.S. consumer prices in January rose more than expected.
U.S. Treasury yields, having jumped on back of the inflation data, dipped on Wednesday.
The "soothing comments" from the Chicago Fed President have helped pushed U.S. yields lower, ING Bank said in a note.
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the central bank remained confident, but the January inflation numbers shows the path back to 2% inflation "may be a bumpy one".
Odds of a Fed rate cut at the March/May meeting were mostly unchanged.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.10; onshore one-month forward premium at 8.25 paise ** Dollar index down at 104.64 ** Brent crude futures down 0.4% at $81.3 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.2250% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $28.1 mln worth of Indian shares on Feb. 13
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $83.3 mln worth of Indian bonds on Feb. 13
