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09-02-2024 08:49 AM | Source: Reuters
Rupee expected to be under pressure on dollar outlook, oil prices

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 The Indian rupee is expected to weaken through Friday's session in the wake of the mostly struggling Asian peers following more pushback on imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts and a jump in oil prices. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open slightly lower to the U.S. dollar from 82.9550 in the previous session.

Expect the rupee to struggle "all through today's session", especially after the daily fixing offers (on USD/INR) are done with, a foreign exchange trader said.

The rupee often "has a difficult time" to sustain above 83 on the last day of the week, he added.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins on Thursday said it will be appropriate "to begin easing policy before the end of the year" and that he expected cumulative rate cuts of 75 basis points in 2024. The market is currently pricing in 116 bps of rate cuts this year

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the Fed could be patient in parsing more inflation data before making any change to its benchmark policy rate.

Barkin was the "latest member to remind markets to be patient about the timing of rate cut", ANZ said in a note.

The dollar index made a high of 104.40 in the New York session. The currency was further helped by data that indicated the U.S. labour market remained resilient.

Asian currencies were mostly down.

OIL PRICES JUMP

Oil prices rallied more than 3% on concerns of a broadening conflict in the Middle East after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer from Hamas.

Brent crude is now up 5.4% this week.

KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.07; onshore one-month forward premium at 8 paise ** Dollar index at 104.14 ** Brent crude futures at $81.5 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.14% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $193mln worth of Indian shares on Feb. 7

** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $78mln worth of Indian bonds on Feb. 7