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The greenback strengthened after the previous week’s pause as haven demand was seen after an escalation of turmoil in the Middle East. On the other hand, the rupee remained resilient last week and stayed in the range before closing at 83.26 with a minor loss of two paise amid the central bank dollar supply. The better-than-expected industrial production number, lower trade deficit reading and slower inflation supported the rupee in the past week.

The greenback rallied as geopolitical worries mountains in the MENA region. FOMC members struck a somewhat dovish tone in recent comments and in minutes of the September FOMC meeting but flagged the possibility that another rate hike remains in play before year-end.

Outlook: The haven demand and higher crude oil prices are likely to weigh on the rupee in the near term. We believe spot USDINR is expected to consolidate between 83 to 83.50.

If it able to break and close above 83.50 levels than it may test 83.80 levels.

Buy USDINR Oct Fut above 83.40 SL 83.10 Target 83.80

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