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The USD/INR pair remains strong as the Indian Rupee continues to weaken, nearing record lows due to persistent foreign fund outflows and muted domestic equity trends. While renewed US Dollar demand from oil companies and foreign banks adds pressure, falling crude oil prices and potential RBI intervention may limit INR depreciation. Key focus areas include India’s October CPI data and upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Technical indicators suggest the USD/INR remains in a bullish phase, though overbought RSI levels hint at possible consolidation. Immediate resistance lies at 84.50, while support is found near 83.84. The outlook will also hinge on global inflation and Fed policy cues.

Key Highlights

* Indian Rupee weakens near all-time lows due to equity outflows.

* USD/INR remains bullish above the 100-day EMA, signaling strength.

* India’s October CPI is expected at 5.80% YoY, up from 5.49%.

* Fed officials' remarks and US CPI data to influence markets.

* RBI intervention and crude oil price declines may cap INR losses.

The USD/INR pair continued to strengthen on Tuesday, as the Indian Rupee faced downward pressure amid persistent foreign fund outflows and subdued domestic equity performance. Over November, foreign investors have withdrawn over $2.5 billion from Indian stocks, compounding the $11 billion outflow in October. This has pushed the INR to near an all-time low of 84.38.

Adding to the depreciation, USD demand from oil companies and foreign banks weighed further on the local currency. However, a decline in global crude oil prices and potential Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention, backed by $682.13 billion in Forex reserves, could limit losses. Analysts suggest the rupee may trade within the 83.80–84.50 range in the medium term.

On the global front, India’s October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a rise to 5.80% YoY, compared to 5.49% prior, keeping inflation in focus. Additionally, US Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to deliver remarks, with markets closely monitoring their stance on interest rate policy.

Technically, the USD/INR remains in a bullish uptrend, supported by its position above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 70 indicates overbought conditions, suggesting short-term consolidation before another potential rally. Resistance is observed at 84.50, with the next psychological target at 85.00. On the downside, support lies near 83.84, followed by 83.46.

Finally

USD/INR remains bullish but overbought technical warrant caution. Key resistance lies at 84.50, while support levels are 83.84 and 83.46, depending on RBI intervention and inflation data.

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