Rupee caught between weak underlying tone, soft US data
The Indian rupee is likely to open little changed on Thursday, holding near its all-time low, amid a weak near-term outlook and data out of the U.S. that supported a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open at 84.72-84.75 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its close of 84.74 in the previous session. It hit a lifetime low of 84.7575 on Tuesday.
Over the last two and a half months, the rupee has been under persistent stress amid worries over India's economic growth, portfolio outflows and a dollar that has received a boost from Donald Trump's U.S. election victory.
That has pushed the rupee below levels that most market participants did not expect, despite the Reserve Bank of India intervening heavily to support the currency.
"There would have been very few takers if you had said a few weeks back that 85 will be seen," a currency trader at a bank said.
"Now the risk of that happening is very real" and the rupee is likely in for a period of prolonged weakness, he said.
U.S. services activity expanded at a slower-than-expected pace and private sector hiring cooled in November, boosting the chances of the Fed lowering rates at its Dec. 17-18 meeting.
The odds of a 25 basis points rate cut reached 80%, per the CME FedWatch Tool. A week back, interest rate swaps were pricing in a 2-in-3 likelihood of a reduction.
The increased probability of a cut comes despite relatively hawkish comments from some Fed officials.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said it may be time to pause or slow rate cuts and Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to signal his support for a slower pace of rate cuts ahead.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 84.85; onshore one-month forward premium at 13.25 paisa
** Dollar index down at 106.24
** Brent crude futures flat at $72.3 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.19%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $1,097.1 mln worth of Indian shares on Dec. 3
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $37.1 mln worth of Indian bonds on Dec. 3
