Rupee caught between inflows, likely RBI intervention
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The Indian rupee is expected to open flat to slightly higher on Monday and is tipped to remain in a narrow range during the week amid dollar inflows and intervention by the central bank.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.90-82.94 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its close of 82.9375 in the previous session.
The rupee managed to inch higher last week and was in an 82.8350-83.0150 range. Traders reckoned that the Reserve Bank of India bought dollars regularly through the week to prevent the rupee from appreciating much in the face of persistent inflows.
"Expect more of the same this week. The bias (on USD/INR) is for sure on the downside and at the same time, there is little doubt that the RBI will now allow much of a drop," an FX trader at a bank said.
This week, the rupee will have additional support from MSCI-rebalancing inflows. India is expected to record passive inflows of $1.2 billion into equities following MSCI's quarterly review, set to take effect on Feb. 29, according to calculations by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research.
On the U.S. data side, the January headline and core PCE index out on Thursday will be off of added importance following the higher-than-expected consumer inflation print. The second release of GDP is due Wednesday.
And, there are a number of Fed speakers lined up this week, who are expected to reinforce that the U.S. central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates.
"Both data and a series of Fed speakers should continue to paint a picture of a patient Fed," HSBC said in a note.
Asia FX was mixed to begin the week, while shares were mostly lower. U.S. equity futures dipped.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.97/83.00; onshore one-month forward premium at 7 paisa
** Dollar index up at 104.01
** Brent crude futures down 0.4% at $81.3 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.23%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $22.7 million worth of Indian shares on Feb. 22
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $59.9 million worth of Indian bonds on Feb. 22
