Record U.S. Oilseed Boom Projected for 2023/24 Amid Global Market Shifts and Climatic Challenges by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
U.S. Oilseed Production (2023/24):
* Estimated at 122.4 million tons, up 0.9 million from the previous month.
* Soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed crops are higher, while peanuts and cottonseed are lower.
* Soybean production is estimated at 4.2 billion bushels, up 35 million, with increases in Illinois, Missouri, and North Dakota.
* Harvested area is estimated at 82.4 million acres, down 0.4 million, with a yield of 50.6 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels.
Soybean Supplies and Stocks:
* Soybean supplies are up 31 million bushels due to slightly lower beginning stocks.
* Soybean export and crush forecasts remain unchanged.
* Ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, up 35 million.
* Soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased imports and biofuel use, and lower exports and food, feed, and other industrial use.
* U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $12.75 per bushel, down 15 cents.
Global Soybean Production (2023/24):
* Global soybean production is raised to 399.0 million tons, with increases in Argentina, the United States, Russia, China, Paraguay, and Bolivia, offset by lower production in Brazil.
* Favorable early-season rainfall improves yield prospects in Argentina and Paraguay.
* China’s soybean crop is increased, while Russia's production is raised on a higher yield.
* Brazil's soybean production is forecast at 157.0 million tons, down 4.0 million from the previous month.
* Lower global sunflowerseed production is noted, down 1.3 million tons, due to decreased output in the EU, Argentina, and Russia.
Global Soybean Market:
* Global soybean crush for 2023/24 is nearly unchanged, with lower crush for Brazil offset by higher crush for Argentina, India, Bolivia, Egypt, and Thailand.
* Soybean meal trade is unchanged.
* Global soybean exports for 2023/24 are increased to 170.9 million tons, with higher exports for Paraguay and Russia.
* Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 114.6 million tons, up 0.4 million, mainly due to higher stocks in the United States and Argentina, partially offset by lower Brazilian stocks.
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