Oil prices rebound on unclear path to Ukraine ceasefire
Oil prices rebounded on Friday after a more than 1% loss in the previous session, partly due to the diminishing prospects of a quick end to the Ukraine war that could bring back more Russian energy supplies to Western markets.
Brent crude futures were up 54 cents, or 0.77%, to $70.42 a barrel at 1055 GMT, after settling 1.5% lower in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.13 a barrel, up 58 cents, or 0.87%, after closing down 1.7% on Thursday.
Prices are set to end the week more or less stable from last Friday, when Brent settled at $70.36 and WTI at $67.04.
"Brent oil has hovered around the $70 mark for the past two weeks. Whether it will remain at this level in the coming week depends on the political news situation," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Moscow supported a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine in principle, but sought a number of clarifications and conditions that appeared to rule out a quick end to the fighting.
"Russia's tepid support of a 30-day ceasefire proposal with Ukraine has reduced confidence around a ceasefire in the short term," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.
Raising pressure on Putin to come to a peace agreement over Ukraine, the Trump administration said on Thursday that a licence allowing energy transactions with Russian financial institutions expired this week.
Chinese state firms are also curbing Russian oil imports on sanctions risks, sources told Reuters.
On Friday, China and Russia stood by Iran after the United States demanded nuclear talks with Tehran, with senior Chinese and Russian diplomats saying dialogue should only resume based on "mutual respect" and all sanctions ought to be lifted.
"Most price projections were to the downside in the short term, but geopolitical tension could still cause supply disruptions," ANZ analysts said in a note to clients.
The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, due to growth led by the United States and weaker than expected global demand.
Unstable macroeconomic conditions caused by escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and other nations prompted the IEA to cut its demand growth estimates for the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of this year.
"High risks on the demand side and increasing supply from OPEC+ argue against a sustained recovery in oil prices," Commerzbank analysts said.
