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Below the Quote on Gold Outlook by N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity & CRM at Ventura.

Gold is caught in a tug-of-war. The Iran war, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty should be supportive, but rising yields and a stronger U.S. dollar are working in the opposite direction. These powerful forces with hawkish U.S FED are creating short-term pressure.

September & US Fed Rate - Inflation remains above target with higher PCE inflation reducing expectations for rapid rate cuts and increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Gold’s price drop this week could be attributed to China’s “Golden Week” holidays which begins 1st Oct’26. Selling ahead of that holiday as gold market and shops would be closed. Some selling due to US-Iran tensions and some to the rise in interest rates. Gold is negatively aAected by “real rates”. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16th Sep’26, its first hike in three years, and the market now prices roughly a 70% probability of a second hike in October. 2nd Oct’26 (Friday) payrolls decide the October Fed path. Fed hike was fully priced. Monday (28th Sep) proved the hike was priced but a second hike was not.

 Gold Outlook -  Gold at $4223 is a metal that has lost its rate-cut premium, not its structural bid. Central banks bought a record 288.9 tons in the second quarter, ETFs took nearly $2 billion in the first week of September and the year-end target of $4900 is still on cards. Structural support continues with prospects of a renewed dollar debasement trade and Central Bank demand for Gold.  Growth in Gold ETF and counterweight of physical demand has kept gold still 8% higher year on year despite 26% drawdown from its January record. The question is whether the $4150 low holds through today’s (30th Sep) PCE and Friday's payrolls. If so, the reflexive bounce base is formed if not then $4000 is the next stop. First a break below $4144 exposes $4108. The bullish case requires holding $4184, $4217 and $4254. Once done, the rally could sail past $4500.  Gold is trading as a rates instrument right now, and rates are trading as an oil instrument. Reopening the strait could see gold rallying. Any escalation, and gold could break $4100.

Treasury Yield Bond yields have been surging due to stronger US growth, higher oil prices and heavy treasury supply.  Higher yields mean more expensive mortgages & corporate borrowing, more pressure on stock valuations & a major shift in the outlook for the U.S. dollar & gold.  Rising real yields are historically the most reliable headwind for gold, because they measure the true inflation-adjusted return an investor gives up by holding bullion.  The rise in yields is also reflecting fiscal concerns and increased government borrowing. Long-term US Treasuries may not remain a reliable hedge and despite higher real rates, it has helped gold to stay resilient. Higher debt leads to higher interest costs widening budget deficits increasing the cost of servicing on higher borrowing. A higher cost of capital can therefore influence asset allocation across the global financial system. If inflation remains persistent, the Fed may need to maintain restrictive policy for longer increasing the cost of refinancing maturing Treasury debt. Consequences could extend into Treasury yields, corporate credit, equity valuations, the dollar, gold, emerging markets and global capital allocation.

Geopolitical & Energy Gold is trading as a rate asset, not as a geopolitical hedge. An escalating war in the Gulf would normally put a floor under bullion. Instead, the conflict is lifting oil, oil is lifting inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are lifting yields and hike odds. Every step of that chain raises the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays nothing.

Going forward The fastest catalyst for Gold to reverse course would be an end to the Iran war. If oil falls and yields finally turn lower, the entire market narrative could change very quickly. 2nd Oct’26 (Friday) payrolls decide the October Fed path Moving into October, India enters its peak wedding and festival calendar (Diwali/Dhanteras). The recent price correction from record August highs has triggered "cautious festive optimism," prompting jewelers and retail buyers to step in at lower entry points, reinforcing physical demand For now, higher yields and a stronger dollar are winning. As long as both continue to rise, gold could stay under pressure despite elevated geopolitical risk. Gold needs to show some convincing signs of stabilization before the bulls can regain control.

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