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Below the Quote On Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, Senior Manager - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Comex gold experienced a modest gain on Monday following a sharp pullback last Friday. The underwhelming U.S. jobs report bolstered the case for Federal Reserve easing, though uncertainty about the scale of rate cuts limited gold's upside. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-bps Fed rate cut has increased to 71%, while the likelihood of a 50-bps cut stands at 29%. Gold remains steady around $2,530/oz as traders await the release of U.S. CPI figures, which are expected to show a 2.5% increase for August compared to the previous year. This would be the smallest gain since 2021 and would edge closer to the Fed's 2% target. Additionally, speeches by FOMC members Barr and Bowman will be closely watched.

WTI crude oil prices rebounded after a significant 7% drop last week, closing 1.5% higher yesterday. This recovery was supported by concerns over supply disruptions due to fears of a potential hurricane in the Gulf Coast, which accounts for about 60% of U.S. refining capacity. The U.S. National Hurricane Center has predicted that a weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is likely to intensify into a hurricane before reaching the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast. Prices could see further gains as Tropical Storm Francine strengthens in the Gulf of Mexico, leading oil companies to evacuate crews and halt some offshore production. However, significant price increases may be limited ahead of upcoming monthly oil market outlooks from OPEC, the EIA, and the IEA, as well as key data releases from the U.S. and China.

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