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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, coupled with signs of weakness in the labor market, has posed challenges for Federal Reserve policymakers and allowed gold to recover from a weekly low of $2,618.80 per ounce. The US CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, surpassing expectations of 0.1% and 2.3%, respectively. Additionally, jobless claims increased by 33,000 to 258,000, marking the highest level since early August 2023. Meanwhile, a softer Producer Price Index (PPI) reinforced expectations for rate cuts, leading to a sharp rebound in gold prices, which reached $2,679 per ounce on Friday. The US PPI rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 1.8% year-over-year in September, following increases of 0.2% and 1.9% in August. COMEX Gold is holding onto modest gains from last week, trading above $2,673 per ounce today. However, sharp upside potential is being limited by a stronger dollar, as markets have scaled back aggressive rate cut expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates almost a 90% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in November, a significant shift from a month ago when the odds for a 25 or 50 basis point cut were evenly split at 50%.
 WTI crude oil prices closed 1.5% higher last week at $75.56 per barrel, despite volatility driven by ongoing concerns about Israel's retaliatory strikes on Iran, as well as significant increases in US stockpiles and disappointment over the lack of new stimulus announcements from China. Today, WTI Crude has dropped more than 1% and is trading below $75 per barrel, weighed down by China’s finance ministry holding back from presenting concrete fiscal stimulus plans during a closely watched briefing on Saturday. While the finance minister indicated that more fiscal stimulus is forthcoming and that there will be a significant increase in debt issuance, no specific details about the size of this stimulus were provided. Oil prices are likely to remain volatile as traders monitor developments in the Israel-Iran conflict. Over the weekend, a Hezbollah drone attack killed four Israeli soldiers, while the Pentagon said it would send an advanced missile defense system and associated troops to help shield its ally. Disruptions in pipeline operations and the closure of several product terminals due to Hurricane Milton are also expected to impact supplies.

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