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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Today, COMEX Gold prices edged lower from a one-month high as markets turn their attention to upcoming US inflation figures following a positive US jobs report. Last Friday, Gold reached $2401.5/oz after downward revisions in US Nonfarm payrolls for previous months and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate increased the likelihood of a September Fed rate cut. Currently, CME’s FedWatch Tool shows that futures markets are pricing in a more than 70% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, up from 57.9% a week ago. Gold may trade within a range today as investors eagerly await more supportive data to bolster the case for a September rate cut. US CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% after remaining unchanged in May, while Core CPI is expected to hold steady at 0.2%. A larger-than-expected increase could lead investors to reassess the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, while a negative surprise could further strengthen market confidence.

WTI Crude held steady near $83/bbl, supported by concerns of potential supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico, strong summer demand signals, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Port closures as a precautionary measure due to fears that Storm Beryl could intensify into a Category 2 hurricane might temporarily risk oil and gas production, thus supporting prices. Additionally, signs of increased summer demand were evident in the largest draw in US oil stocks in a year. Crude oil could see further gains as markets evaluate the impact of Storm Beryl and wildfires in Alberta, while also awaiting the monthly crude market outlook from OPEC and IEA later this week.

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