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Gold – Spot gold slipped to $4,007 per ounce on Monday, extending its decline from the previous session as a stronger U.S. dollar and fading expectations of a December rate cut weighed on sentiment. Several Fed policymakers last week expressed doubts about the need for another cut this year, suggesting that keeping rates unchanged may be necessary to balance persistent inflation pressures against emerging signs of labor-market softening. On Monday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson added to the hawkish tone, emphasizing the need to “proceed slowly” with further easing. This prompted traders to scale back expectations for a December rate cut to a 41% probability, down from more than 60% last week. Today, gold dipped below $4,005 and remains under pressure on hawkish Fed rhetoric and as traders stay cautious ahead of the U.S. September jobs report due on November 20.

Crude Oil – WTI crude oil prices were rangebound on Monday, giving up part of Friday’s gains after Russia’s key Black Sea port of Novorossiysk resumed operations following a Ukrainian strike last week that caused temporary disruptions. Prices held near $60/bbl, supported by risks to Russian supply, political uncertainty in Venezuela, and ongoing disruptions in Sudan. Last week, both OPEC and the IEA raised concerns about a potential supply glut. The IEA increased its projected surplus for 2026 to 4.09 million barrels per day, while OPEC now expects the market to be largely balanced next year rather than showing the deficit previously anticipated. Today, oil prices have edged lower to $59.5/bbl as traders weigh persistent oversupply concerns against the potential impact of upcoming U.S. sanctions on Russian producers.

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