Quote on Gold and Crude 04th Sept 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 04th Sept 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
Gold extended its record-breaking rally for the seventh consecutive session on Wednesday, hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,578.5/oz, as softer U.S. labor data strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. The latest JOLTS report revealed a decline in job openings to a 10-month low, highlighting continued labor market weakness. In response, traders almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 98% probability of easing at the upcoming policy meeting. Meanwhile, safe haven bids remain elevated as Trump is appealing to the Supreme Court to uphold his import tariffs, while Russia-Ukraine tensions run high. Today, gold prices initially fell over 1% to $3,520/oz on profit-taking, following the recent surge. However, prices have since recovered to around $3,540/oz, ahead of key U.S. economic data releases, including private payrolls and weekly jobless claims. Most importantly, the official U.S. jobs report due Friday is expected to show a fourth straight month of subdued payroll growth. If the data come in weaker than anticipated, it may boost the case for deeper Fed rate cuts in the coming months.
WTI crude oil prices slipped to $63.7/bbl while MCX prices declined to Rs.5,625/bbl yesterday, following reports that OPEC+ may consider unwinding the remaining voluntary production cuts of around 1.65 million barrels per day, well ahead of their scheduled extension through December 2026. Also, weaker-than-expected U.S. job openings data raised concerns over demand. However, a softer U.S. dollar and ongoing supply disruption risks helped prices close at $64/bbl. Ukraine's sustained attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have pushed the country’s crude-processing activity to its lowest monthly average in over three years. Today, oil prices edged lower to $63.3/bbl as traders remain cautious ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. Also, prices are pressured ahead of EIA inventory report after API reported an unexpected 622,000-barrel increase in U.S. crude stocks for the week ending August 22
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