IGI Logo

Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 04th Sept 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Gold extended its record-breaking rally for the seventh consecutive session on Wednesday, hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,578.5/oz, as softer U.S. labor data strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. The latest JOLTS report revealed a decline in job openings to a 10-month low, highlighting continued labor market weakness. In response, traders almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 98% probability of easing at the upcoming policy meeting. Meanwhile, safe haven bids remain elevated as Trump is appealing to the Supreme Court to uphold his import tariffs, while Russia-Ukraine tensions run high. Today, gold prices initially fell over 1% to $3,520/oz on profit-taking, following the recent surge. However, prices have since recovered to around $3,540/oz, ahead of key U.S. economic data releases, including private payrolls and weekly jobless claims. Most importantly, the official U.S. jobs report due Friday is expected to show a fourth straight month of subdued payroll growth. If the data come in weaker than anticipated, it may boost the case for deeper Fed rate cuts in the coming months.