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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

* Rupee closed at record low on Wednesday amid strong dollar demand from importers and weakness in Asian peers. The strength in the dollar and higher crude oil prices weighed on the rupee to settle near 83.45.

* Rupee is expected to appreciate back towards 83.35 amid correction in the dollar. Dovish comments from the Fed Chair Powell would likely to weigh on the dollar. Further, mixed US economic numbers could also check the upside in the dollar. Moreover, higher forex reserves and improved risk sentiments would help the rupee to limit its downside beyond 83.50 and move towards 83.35. So we expect rupee to move in a very tight range of 83.35-83.55. Only a move below 83.35 it would slide towards 83.20.

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro rose more than 0.50% yesterday amid weakness in the dollar and improved Eurozone unemployment data. Unemployment rate remained at a record low in February. Meanwhile, easing price pressure in Eurozone as the inflation rose less than expected has checked the upside in the pair. EURUSD is expected to hold support near 1.080 and move higher towards 1.0865 on expectation of improved service PMI numbers. EURINR April is likely to find support near 90.00 and move towards 90.80.

* Pound gained more than 0.50% amid correction in the dollar. The pair is expected to hold support near 1.26 and rebound towards 1.27 amid improved risk sentiments and rise in service PMI numbers. GBPINR April is likely move towards 105.90 as long as it holds support of 105.00. Only a move below 105.00 it would slip towards 104.80 level.

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