USD/INR will trade between 83.18 - 83.86 in the upcoming session - Axis Securities Ltd
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Spot USD/INR
* The pair’s intraday range as a percentage of the previous session’s close was the narrowest since Feb. 27 in what was a total absence of volatility
* The ongoing jump has sent the pair back to a retest of its recent highs
* The momentum regime is bullish but not yet overbought as the pair quotes above its 20- and 50-day averages
* There is an 96% probability –as per the Bloomberg FX rate forecast model - that the USD/INR will trade between 83.18 – 83.86 in the upcoming session
Spot EUR/INR
* The EURINR opened on a weak note following the Friday slump, but managed to claw back some intraday losses at close
* Today’s low has support from an area where the Feb. trough was seen, around ~88.80
* The slow stochastics oscillator is bearish but is oversold, although not at a downside extreme
* There is an 84% probability –as per the Bloomberg FX rate forecast model - that the pair will trade between 88.40 – 89.40 in the following session
Spot JPY/INR
* The JPY fell to a fresh three-decade low against the dollar on fears that rising oil prices will impact the nation’s trade balance; that pushed the JPY/INR to its lowest since 2015.
* Today’s plunge has sent the slow stochastics oscillator on the 240-minute chart to deeply oversold territory while the daily RSI went below 30 for the first time since June ’23.
* There is an 80% change that the pair will trade inside the 0.5374 – 0.5452 range in the upcoming session.
* Major Fibonacci-based support lies at 0.5360, while 0.5443 represents a tactical upside hurdle followed by 0.5494.
Spot GBP/INR
* The pair opened weak but recovered during the day to end near its session highs; resistance to any attempted recovery lies near ~104.62
* 103.81 remains an important downside marker followed by 103.47, which is the midpoint of the range set by the October to December advance.
* Momentum on the four-hourly chart is oversold and recent price action suggests that the market is looking for a swing low to form, although a bullish trigger is still awaited.
* There is an 86% chance that the pair will trade between 103.56 and 104.80 in the next session.
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