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Indian markets ended with solid gains on Friday, tracking positive cues from global markets amid positive Eurozone inflation and U.K. GDP data. Markets were closed on Monday on account of Gandhi Jayanti. Today, indices are likely to start a crucial week on negative note ahead of the RBI's monetary policy outcome later in the week. The RBI Governor-headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet for three days beginning October 4. Governor Skhatikanta Das will announce the decision on October 6. There are expectations that the Central Bank will leave interest rate unchanged. Also, investors will be eyeing S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data to be out later in the day for more cues. Traders will be concerned as a finance ministry report said the government’s total gross debt increased by 2.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 159.53 lakh crore in April-June this fiscal. The liabilities stood at Rs 156.08 lakh crore at March-end. Some cautiousness may come as the Reserve Bank said the country’s foreign exchange reserves declined further by $2.335 billion to $590.702 billion for the week ended September 22. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves dropped by $867 million to $593.037 billion. Meanwhile, data released by the Controller General of Accounts showed that the government's fiscal deficit widened to Rs 6.43 lakh crore in April-August from Rs 6.06 lakh crore in April-July period.  However, some respite may come as the government data showed that the growth of eight key infrastructure sectors rose to a 14-month high of 12.1 per cent in August 2023 against 4.2 per cent a year ago, mainly due to expansion in production of coal, crude oil, and natural gas. Some optimism may come as gross GST collection rose 10% to over Rs 1.62 lakh crore in September, crossing the Rs 1.6 lakh crore mark for the fourth time during current financial year. Some support may come as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the four-month monsoon season has ended with India receiving ‘normal’ rainfall - 820 mm against a long-period average of 868.6 mm - with positive factors countering the effect of El Nino conditions. Besides, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said the Indian economy is poised to grow at an average of 6.5% annually between 2023 and 2030. Traders may take note of a report that retail inflation for industrial workers eased to 6.91 per cent in August from 7.54 per cent in July this year mainly due to lower prices of certain food items. There will be some reaction in online gaming industry related stocks as the Centre notified the amendments in Central Goods and Services Tax (CGST) and Integrated Goods and Services Tax (IGST) for the online gaming companies as passed by the Lok Sabha on August 11 and in line with the recommendations of the GST Council. The amendments will come into effect from October 1. Garment industry stocks will be in limelight as report by Crisil Ratings said readymade garment manufacturers are likely to post an 8-10 per cent increase in revenue on the back of growing domestic demand and revival of exports. Auto will be buzzing reacting to their monthly sales numbers. Meanwhile, JSW Infrastructure is likely to debut on the bourses on October 3.

The US markets ended mostly higher on Monday as rising oil prices and bond yields offset signs of resilience in the U.S. manufacturing sector and investor optimism over lawmakers reaching a deal to avert government shutdown. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Tuesday after the World Bank said that east Asia's developing economies are likely to expand at one of the lowest rates in five decades.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended higher on Friday on the back of value-buying in Metal, Healthcare and PSU stocks aided by positive trends in the US and European markets. The markets started the day on a positive note and extended gains as the day progressed as the figures released by the Reserve Bank of India showed that India’s foreign exchange reserves in nominal terms (which includes valuation effects) rose by $16.6 billion during April-June 2023, mainly driven by strong Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) flows. Traders took support with CBIC chief Sanjay Kumar Agarwal’s statement that increased monthly GST collections are mainly on account of higher compliance, and the GST Council's decision to tighten return filing and registration process would help reduce fake ITC claims in evasion prone sectors, including iron and steel. But profit booking in the final hour pared some of the gains.  Some cautiousness came as rating agency CRISIL said after clocking a robust 15.9 per cent growth in FY23, the bank credit growth in India is likely to moderate to 13-13.5 per cent in the current financial year (FY24). It will improve to 13.5-14 per cent in the next financial year (FY25) as economic growth picks up. Some concerns came as the provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 3,364.22 crore on September 28. However, key gauges managed to end with decent gains as some optimism remained among traders with credit rating agency, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its ‘September 2023 edition of its Credit Market Tracker’ report stating that the tightness in the liquidity market is likely to ease meaningfully in the coming quarter, as the government spending has increased, followed by a further release of money from the incremental cash reserve ratio funds. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 320.09 points or 0.49% to 65,828.41 and the CNX Nifty was up by 114.75 points or 0.59% to 19,638.30.

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