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Indian equity markets are likely to make a positive start on Thursday, tracking positive global cues after a U.S. court ruling blocked President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, citing overreach of power. Investors sentiment may also get a boost from continued buying by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). However, as the session progresses, some volatility may emerge due to the monthly expiry of the May series Futures & Options (F&O) contracts.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

FM asked PSU insurers to leverage AI for improved risk assessment: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has reviewed financial performance of public sector general insurance companies and asked them to leverage artificial intelligence (AI) for improved risk assessment as well as prompt address of customer grievances.

Government raises 2024-25 food grain output forecast to record 353.95 million tons: India's food grain production is projected to reach a record 353.95 million tonnes in the 2024-25 crop year, driven by bumper harvests of wheat, rice, and maize. The agriculture minister attributed this success to supportive government policies, including fair pricing and agricultural schemes.

Possibility of interim trade deal between India, US by June 25: The private report said that there is a possibility that the two countries may agree on an interim trade pact by June 25 with a team of US officials expecting to visit India next month for trade talks.

India's industrial production growth slips to 2.7% in April: India's industrial production growth slowed to 2.7% in April 2025 due to poor performance of manufacturing, mining and power sectors. The factory output, measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), rose by 5.2 per cent in April 2024.

Construction equipment industry’s stocks will be in focus: Indian Construction Equipment Manufacturers' Association (ICEMA) President V Vivekanand said that the domestic construction equipment industry is likely to register double-digit growth in the ongoing financial year as the pace of project execution, which has shown some positive momentum, is expected to grow further.

On the global front: The U.S. markets ended in red on Wednesday ahead of the release of earnings news from AI darling and market leader Nvidia. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday, as U.S. court ruling blocked President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, citing overreach of power.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks declined for the second straight day on Wednesday due to losses in FMCG, Metal and Auto stocks. Investors trimmed positions ahead of the monthly futures and options expiry on Thursday. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 239.31 points or 0.29% to 81,312.32 and the CNX Nifty was down by 73.75 points or 0.30% to 24,752.45.

Some of the important factors in trade:

FDI equity inflow in India falls 24.5% Y-o-Y in Q4FY25: The government data has said that foreign direct investment (FDI) equity inflow in India fell 24.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to $9.34 billion in the January-March quarter of 2024-25 but grew 13 per cent at $50 billion during the entire FY25.

US-India bilateral trade agreement could flip current headwinds into tailwinds: The Finance Ministry in its monthly economic review report has said that a successful US-India bilateral trade agreement could flip current headwinds into tailwinds, opening up new market access and energizing exports. India seeks full exemption from reciprocal tariffs before the July 8 deadline. 

India's goods, services exports likely to reach $1 trillion this fiscal: The apex exporters' body -- Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) has suggested that the country's overall goods and services exports are likely to reach $1 trillion during 2025-26. Meanwhile, the exports were aggregated at $825 billion in 2024-25.

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