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Indian equity markets are likely to make negative start on Monday, tracking mixed global cues amid renewed concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's escalating trade tensions. Traders may remain cautious ahead of India's June Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data and HCL Technologies' Q1 earnings. Additionally, sentiments likely to remain dampen by foreign fund outflows, as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remain net sellers.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

Forex reserves drop by $3 billion to $699.73 billion: The RBI said that India's forex reserves dropped by $3.04 billion to $699.73 billion in the week ended July 4, 2025.

Net direct tax mop-up dips 1.34% to Rs 5.63 lakh crore on higher refunds: The Government data showed that net direct tax collection fell 1.34 per cent to about Rs 5.63 lakh crore till July 10 of the current financial year, mainly on account on higher refunds. 

I-T refunds jump 474% since 2013-14: A private report said that Income Tax refunds have jumped 474 per cent in the last 11 years to Rs 4.77 lakh crore in 2024-25, significantly outpacing the 274 per cent growth in gross tax collections.

Switzerland ratifies India-EFTA mega trade pact: Switzerland has finally completed the ratification process for a landmark trade deal between India and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) that would reduce trade barriers and significantly open up the Indian market to Swiss exports.

Jaishankar says Steady Progress in India-Singapore Bilateral Ties: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said that he was glad to note the steady progress in various bilateral initiatives with Singapore as he met Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong.

On the global front: The U.S. markets ended in red on Friday, amid renewed concerns about President Donald Trump's escalating trade tensions. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Monday, after the release of Chinese trade data.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks declined for the third session in a row on Friday, due to a sober start to Q1 earnings season and a ramp-up in the tariff threat by the US to impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canada. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 689.81 points or 0.83% to 82,500.47 and the CNX Nifty was down by 205.40 points or 0.81% to 25,149.85. 

Some of the important factors in trade:

Private asset reconstruction companies' AUM to decline by up to 6% in FY26: Ratings agency Crisil has said that private asset reconstruction companies' assets under management (AUM), measured in terms of security receipts, is set to decline by up to 6 per cent in FY26 to Rs 1.05 lakh crore as redemptions are outpacing acquisitions. 

India revises proposed retaliatory duties against US over steel, aluminium tariffs in WTO: In view of further tariffs hike on steel and aluminium by the Trump administration, India has revised its proposal to impose retaliatory duties under the WTO (World Trade Organisation) norms against the US. 

India to fill China's gap in Japan's garment market: The Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC) said that India has the potential to fill the gap left by the declining share of China, the largest exporter of ready-made garments to Japan.

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