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Indian markets moved in a narrow range around the neutral lines and ended the session with slender gains on Thursday. Markets were closed on Friday on account of Mahashivratri. Today, markets are likely to make cautious start of the week as investors likely to remain on sidelines ahead of domestic retail and wholesale inflation data for February, along with IIP data for January, to be out later in the week. However, some support will come amid foreign fund inflows. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 7,304.11 crore on March 7, provisional data from the NSE showed. Sentiments may get a boost as Moody’s Ratings raised India’s GDP growth forecast for FY24 to around 8 per cent from 6.6 per cent on the back of strong domestic consumption and capital expenditure. The estimate comes a day after RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the economic growth in the current financial year could be close to 8 per cent in view of the third quarter GDP data released by the government. Traders will be taking encouragement as data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed that foreign exchange reserves rose $6.6 billion to a two-year high of $625.6 billion in the week ended March 1. In the previous week, reserves had risen $3 billion to $619.1 billion. Traders may take note of report that India and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) signed a landmark trade and economic partnership agreement (TEPA) to open up the EFTA markets for Indian businesses and the Indian markets for the EFTA. As part of the deal, the EFTA countries have committed to invest $100 billion in India over the next 15 years. The EFTA comprises Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Meanwhile, Markets regulator Sebi has extended the deadline till March 28 for submitting public comments on the proposal to revamp the nominations framework, a move aimed at reducing unclaimed assets in the securities market. Metal stocks will be in focus as credit rating agency ICRA expects domestic steel consumption growth to moderate to 7-8 per cent in the next financial year (FY25), after three back-to-back years of double-digit growth. The rating agency expects the operating environment to remain challenging in the next financial year as the industry navigates through a period of softness in steel prices, elevated input costs, a temporary deceleration in domestic demand growth close to the elections, and a weak external environment. There will be some reaction in coal industry stocks as the Coal Ministry said production of Coal India hit a record 703.91 million tonnes (MT) in this fiscal until March 7, surpassing the last fiscal’s output of 703.20 MT.

The US markets ended higher on Friday after touching record highs during the session, with high-flying chip stocks going reverse and a mixed labour market report showing more new jobs than expected with a rising unemployment rate. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday with artificial intelligence darling Nvidia finishing down more than 5 percent in its worst session since late May.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended with minor gains on Thursday on the back of selective buying in metals, capital goods and telecom stocks. Markets opened on a positive note amid foreign fund inflows. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 2,766.75 crore on March 6, provisional data from the NSE showed. However, key gauges soon turned volatile as traders avoided any unwarranted position ahead of extended weekend for the Indian markets. Traders remained cautious as Crisil Ratings stated that India’s real GDP growth will moderate to 6.8 per cent in FY2025 from the 7.6 per cent expected in the ongoing fiscal. Higher interest rates and demand being tempered by lower fiscal impulse will lead to the moderation of growth. Some concern also came as Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade data showed that foreign direct equity (FDI) investments contracted by 21 per cent Y-o-Y to $41.31 billion during the calendar year 2023. The sustained contraction in investment inflows comes against the backdrop of uncertainties and challenges in the global economy. But, key gauges managed to keep their heads above water during second half of trading session and settled with marginal gains. Traders took support with Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das’ statement that the Indian economy is likely to grow more than the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimate of 7.6 per cent in the current financial year (FY24) and it could be close to 8 per cent. Adding to the optimism, the report said the government has prepared a strategy to step up outreach to foreign investors in a bid to attract foreign investments and showcase India's burgeoning opportunities. The government has commenced roadshows to pitch Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) to potential investors. Traders took note of report that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said India and Japan are natural partners in a world headed towards ‘re-globalisation’, asserting that the two nations also share basic affinities, being democracies and market economies. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 33.40 points or 0.05% to 74,119.39 and the CNX Nifty was up by 19.50 points or 0.09% to 22,493.55.

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