Market Watch : Nifty near 200D SMA US rate cut hopes revive - Geojit Financial Services Ltd
Nifty Outlook
Yesterday's fall towards 200 day SMA evoked no surprise, with VIX settling well below what was seen on 4th Nov when Nifty had dropped to 23816, which was then the lowest point since the recent downtrend began. All the reversal signals mentioned yesterday stand, but await further confirmation. Only about 12% of Nifty 50 stocks trade above their respective 10 day SMA now, reflecting the inherent weakness, but more than 65% of Nifty 500 constituents closed atleast 0.5% above their respective lows of yesterday, hinting at initial signs of a broad market fight back shortly. We will however wait for a direct rise above 23770 to confirm strength, while inability to float above 23643 would be seen as a signal towards extended weakness. The next leg down could aim for 22800, but we feel that a meaningful upswing could unfold prior to that.
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Weekly Market Wrap by Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities