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Nifty : 24479

Technical Outlook

Day that was

Equity benchmarks settled volatile budget session on a flat note. The Nifty settled the session at 24479, down 30 points. The market breadth remained slightly in favour of advances. Sectorally, Consumption, IT outshone while financials, realty, Oil & Gas took a breather

Technical Outlook:

* The index started the session on a subdues note and witnessed a sharp decline amid progression of budget outcome. However, supportive efforts from lower band of consolidation of 24000 helped index to recoup intraday losses. As a result, daily price action resembles a hammer like candle, indicating supportive efforts at elevated support base. Meanwhile, decline in India VIX suggest that the anxiety around Union budget is settling down

* The formation of lower high-low signifies corrective bias wherein 24700 would act as immediate hurdle. Thus, we believe prolongation of consolidation in the broader range of 24700-24000, going ahead wherein focus would shift back to Q1fy25 earrings coupled and global cues as stock specific action amid sector rotation would prevail. Only a decisive close above 24700 would open the door for next leg of up move. Following are the key monitorable for the upcoming week:

* A) Reaction to detailed outcome of Budget

* B) Many Index heavy weights are lined up with their Q1FY25 earnings which would have bearing on the market movement

* C) On the domestic broader market front, Nifty Midcap and Small cap indices have taken a breather after rallying 23% and 28% respectively off election outcome day low which hauled weekly stochastic oscillator in overbought territory, suggesting extended breather temporary breather wherein possibility of 5-7% correction in the broader market cannot be ruled out which has historically offered incremental buying opportunity in quality stocks

* Structurally, the formation of higher peak and trough signifies supportive efforts at elevated support base. As a result, strong support is placed at 24000 as it is confluence of:

* A) 61.8% retracement of past four weeks up moves 23350-24854)

* B) July Month’s low is placed at 23993

Nifty Bank : 51778

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

Nifty Bank closed lower on an eventful trading session amid elevated volatility . Bank Nifty declined 502 points or 1 % to settle at 51778 led by profit taking in private and public banks alike

Technical Outlook :

* The Index declined post Union Budget presentation in a knee jerk reaction, however index held its support zone of 51000 - 51500 despite panic selling, leading to recovery in second half, resulting in a bear candle with lower shadow . It is important to gain follow through strength above past two week highs of 52800 to conclude end of correction until then consolidation in 51000 -52800 is likely amid stock specific action amid progression of earnings

* Index has approached and held its key short term support on an important event and going forward holing this panic low and support zone of 51000 -51500 would lead to base formation in the short term with key resistance placed at 52800 being past two week highs . Only a decisive break from this range would dictate further directional bias

* Immediate support at 51500 -51000 is confluence of rising 50 -day average (50900 ) and swing high of exit poll at 51133

* PSU banking stocks have relatively remained resilient and currently undergoing higher bottom formation

* Price structure : We observe that index is undergoing retracement from overbought readings after 15 % rally and short term retracements would make overall uptrend healthier . Hence consolidation in the short term will help index to undergo higher base formation and work out of overbought readings that will set stage fo r next up leg

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